Electricity demand will increase sharply
EVNHCMC has just held a meeting to deploy the plan to ensure electricity for the 2027 dry season under the chairmanship of Mr. Luan Quoc Hung - Deputy General Director of EVNHCMC.
With about 7 months left, Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern region will enter the 2027 dry season. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the current ENSO phenomenon has shifted to El Nino state with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific region about 0.9°C higher than the multi-year average.
The forecast of El Nino continues to be maintained in the last months of 2026 and tends to strengthen gradually. In particular, the probability of a very strong El Nino appears can be up to 63% in the period November 2026 - January 2027. The hot sun phenomenon is likely to start in the Southern region from around the beginning of March 2027 and the first half of 2027, the number of hot sun days is likely to be higher than the multi-year average.
According to a report by the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee, in the first 6 months of 2026, the city's GRDP increased by 8.55% compared to the same period in 2025 and Ho Chi Minh City is still focusing on economic development to achieve the double-digit target in 2026 and the following years.
In particular, the Urban Development Law just passed by the National Assembly will officially take effect on October 1, 2026 with many specific mechanisms for urban development in Ho Chi Minh City, which will be a boost for infrastructure projects of the city, meaning that the pressure to supply electricity for development needs will be very large.
Statistics from EVNHCMC show that the average Pmax electricity load growth rate of Ho Chi Minh City after the merger in the past 5 years (from 2022 - 2026) is about 5.4%/year, of which in 2026 Pmax reached 9,668MW, an increase of 6.06% compared to 2025.
Ho Chi Minh City is also currently implementing the development of renewable energy according to Directive 10 of the Prime Minister on installing rooftop solar power (DMT) and saving electricity. Accordingly, the installed capacity of DMT in Ho Chi Minh City reached 1,927.9 MWp with 20,915 systems signed before January 1, 2021; 4,114 self-produced and self-consumed systems were recorded, 66 systems at headquarters and 71 systems at 220, 110 kV substations (capacity of 7.45 MWp).
Based on the above, EVNHCMC forecasts that the maximum load capacity of the Ho Chi Minh City area in the dry season of 2027 is 10,296 MW, an increase of 6.5% compared to the same period in 2026 (basic scenario), and builds an additional scenario of high increase of 10,743 MW, an increase of 11.11% compared to the same period in 2026.
Accelerate project progress to ensure dry season power supply
In August 2026, EVNHCMC ensured safe power supply, meeting the needs of socio-economic development and people's lives. Received electricity output reached 5,499.2 million kWh, up 8.2%; accumulated 8 months reached 41,151.7 million kWh, up 7.7% over the same period. Maximum capacity in August reached 9,186 MW, lower than the maximum level of 9,668 MW recorded in the year.
At the meeting, Mr. Luan Quoc Hung requested units directly under EVNHCMC to closely coordinate with each other as well as with relevant units to ensure the progress of completing the assigned construction investment projects.
The Ho Chi Minh City Power System Dispatch Center alone must regularly review the allocation of available capacity from NSMO monthly to propose operating methods suitable to the actual situation and ensure the accuracy of load forecasting. Mr. Hung assigned the Dispatch Center to work with the Southern Power System Dispatch Center on optimizing the operation of the 110kV – 220kV power grid in the city to ensure stable and continuous power supply.
At the same time, organize exercises to coordinate with relevant units in load shifting, load adjustment, power reduction, and mobilization of diesel generators when there is power/output shortage in cases of plan and off-plan.
