Domestic silver prices
As of 10:50 am on March 2nd, the price of Kim Phuc Loc 999 silver bars (1 tael) of Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Company Limited (Sacombank-SBJ) was listed at the threshold of 3.657 - 3.759 million VND/tael (buying - selling); an increase of 186,000 VND/tael in both directions compared to yesterday morning.
At the same time, the price of 999 silver bars (1 tael) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group was listed at 3.531 - 3.640 million VND/tael (buying - selling); an increase of 26,000 VND/tael on the buying side and an increase of 27,000 VND/tael on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.
The price of 999 silver ingots (1kg) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group is listed at 94.159 - 97.066 million VND/kg (buying - selling); an increase of 693,000 VND/kg on the buying side and an increase of 720,000 VND/kg on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.
World silver price
On the world market, as of 10:50 am on March 2nd (Vietnam time), the world silver price was listed at 94.48 USD/ounce; up 0.89 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Causes and forecasts
The global silver market is showing signs of a serious imbalance between book trading data and the actual amount of metals ready for delivery. This development has caused investors and major financial institutions to simultaneously issue warnings about the risk of strong fluctuations in the near future.
According to Mr. Arslan Butt - market analyst at FX Leaders, the focus of attention is information about sell orders of up to 159 million ounces of silver on the CME Group commodity exchange. This volume far exceeds the amount of silver registered ready for delivery, currently believed to be under 60 million ounces, in the context of the March contract's First Notice Day approaching.
The large gap between the amount of contracts on paper and the actual material supply raises concerns about the possibility of the market falling into a "delivery shortage" situation if many parties simultaneously request to receive material silver.
The current inventory level is the lowest since the 1970s - a period that witnessed historic precious metal fevers" - Arslan Butt emphasized.
In that context, financial institutions are quickly updating the price scenario. Deutsche Bank (Germany's largest bank) recently said that the gold-silver ratio around 57 may contain significant room for a significant increase in silver prices, especially since this bank once issued a long-term forecast of 100 USD/ounce.
From a bolder perspective, precious metal investor Eric Sprott warned that if the shortage of physical gold and silver supply continues, the market could witness a "revaluation shock", with an extreme scenario that could push silver prices to the 300 USD/ounce range.
Arslan Butt added that geopolitical factors are also contributing to fueling volatility. After joint military campaigns between the US and Israel, tensions in the Middle East escalated to their highest level in a decade. In that context, silver jumped 8%, far exceeding the 2% increase of gold at the same time.
This development reinforces the view that silver is not only an industrial metal but also a safe haven asset, with a stronger volatility than gold as defensive cash flow increases. As investors withdraw capital from stocks and the USD to find shelter, silver is emerging as a notable alternative" - Arslan Butt said.
The combination of factors - reduced inventory, paper contracts far exceeding actual supply, forecasts of strong price increases from large organizations and geopolitical risks - is creating an environment prone to sudden fluctuations.
If physical delivery pressure increases while supply cannot be replenished in time, the silver market may enter a strong revaluation phase. However, with its high volatility, silver also poses major risks for short-term investors," Arslan Butt said.
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