Domestic gold price higher than world price by more than 18 million VND/tael
Today's gold price recorded SJC gold bars around 146.9 million VND/tael for buying and 149.9 million VND/tael for selling. The difference between buying and selling directions is at 3 million VND/tael.
This means that buyers of a tael of gold at the selling price, if resold immediately according to the buying price, will temporarily lose about 3 million VND/tael, not including the subsequent market fluctuations.
On the international market, spot gold prices are around 4,118-4,120 USD/ounce. Converted at the bank exchange rate, the world gold price is equivalent to about 131.5 million VND/tael, lower than the domestic SJC gold bar selling price by about 18.4 million VND/tael.
This gap shows that domestic gold buyers are not only affected by world gold prices, but also bear additional risks from buying-selling differences and differences between domestic and international prices.
Many organizations still recognize that gold still has support
In the Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 report, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that if the current macroeconomic conditions do not change significantly, gold prices may fluctuate around the current range with an amplitude of about ±5%.
However, the WGC also believes that gold still has the potential to break through if there is an economic shock, new geopolitical risks or expectations of interest rates reversing towards lower levels.
UBS Chief Investment Office, UBS's investment strategy department, has a more positive view when expecting gold prices to reach 5,200 USD/ounce in 12 months. However, UBS also noted that in the short term, gold is still under pressure from a strong USD and increased real yields.
From a more cautious perspective, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth believe that gold prices may move sideways in the short term due to high real yields and a strong USD. However, portfolio diversification needs, central bank gold buying activities and ETF capital flows are still factors supporting gold prices in the medium term.
International forecasts in general do not deny the support of gold, but also do not show that prices will increase in a one-way direction.
Domestic buyers should not just look at world forecasts
The point to note is that the above forecasts mainly refer to world gold prices calculated according to USD/ounce. Meanwhile, Vietnamese people trade SJC gold bars, gold rings or jewelry gold at domestic listed prices.
Although world gold prices are forecast to have room to increase, domestic buyers may still not achieve profits as expected if the buying-selling spread is wide or the difference between domestic and world prices narrows.
For example, with a buying-selling difference of 3 million VND/tael, gold prices need to increase enough to compensate for this difference, then buyers will approach the breakeven point. If buying for short-term surfing, this difference will significantly increase transaction costs.
In addition, when domestic gold prices are higher than the converted world price by more than 18 million VND/tael, buyers also face risks if this gap narrows. At that time, domestic gold prices may adjust faster than world prices.
Therefore, for individual investors, international forecasts should be considered as a reference channel, not a direct buying and selling signal. Buyers need to consider the proportion of gold in total assets, use idle money and avoid chasing after strong increases.
Gold may be suitable for long-term accumulation and risk hedging goals. However, for short-term buyers, using borrowed capital or needing money in the near future, price fluctuations and buying-selling differences may increase risks.
