Gold prices still have upward momentum
Metals Focus and Gold Focus 2025 annual gold reports show that gold prices still have strong momentum to continue to increase in 2026.
In a report released on Thursday, analysts from the British research firm said they predict gold prices will average a record $3,210/ounce this year, with the possibility of a new high in the second half of the year.
Philip Newman, CEO of Metals Focus, said it is difficult to imagine a scenario that could disrupt the market. He also said that, although not an official forecast, he expects this growth momentum to last until 2026.
Looking at whats happening in the global economy, there are many active factors. We have all the necessary factors to create a structured beef market, he said.
An interesting point about gold is that investors are quick to get used to new prices, where old resistance levels often become new support levels. A year ago, he said he expected $3,000 an ounce to be a major milestone and would trigger a profit-taking wave.
However, with the current economic instability and political disruptions related to trade, investors are not discouraged by the current prices.
He emphasized that what makes 2025 special is that investors are only starting to pay real attention to the market. Although gold has been on a steady upward trend since 2023, demand is mainly from central banks, with the majority of investment coming from Asia, especially China.
Newman also said that investors only really turned to a positive attitude in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early this year.
We have seen significant growth in investment demand this year, but there is still a lot of money waiting. This is not a bubble. This market is very solid," he said.
Although economic uncertainty continues to spread through global financial markets, Newman said an important factor driving investment in gold is the change in awareness of the USD.
Although the US dollar remains a last resort, Newman pointed out that uncertainty in trade and unsustainable US government debt have eroded market confidence, causing investors to seek gold as a safe and diversified channel.
He also warned that confidence in the US dollar is gradually eroding, and there are real risks that the US-led trade war could plunge the global economy into recession or even stagflation, as consumer prices continue to rise.
Central banks continue to play a key role
Newman said central banks are expected to continue to be key players in the gold market. Metals Focus forecasts central banks will buy more than 1,000 tonnes of gold this year, for the fourth consecutive year.
It is difficult to see gold prices not increase when there is strong investment demand supported by buying gold from central banks, he said.
Regarding the risk of depreciation, Newman said there will be a major change in the global economy, with concerns about the economy disappearing to make way for stable growth. In that scenario, investors may return to stocks and bonds.
Its a possibility, I think, but its definitely not our basic scenario. For us, it could be the lowest possibility. But that is definitely something you have to think about," he said.
Newman noted that investors will not only have to watch the global trade war and US tariffs, but by the end of this year, geopolitical instability may appear again as the US prepares for the 2026 midterm election.
He also pointed out an unPMC but significant risk, which is what will happen in 2026 when Jerome Powell's term as chairman of the US Federal Reserve ends?
Although investment demand is forecast to remain strong, mainly from Asian and Chinese markets, Metals Focus predicts that higher gold prices will affect jewelry demand.
