World gold prices continue to fluctuate in a narrow range around the 4,000 USD/ounce mark as investors consider the risk of inflation and the risk of slowing down economic growth. According to the latest assessment by Saxo Bank, the ability to maintain the current price range is considered a positive signal for the precious metals market.
In a newly released report, Mr. Ole Hansen - Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank - said that gold still maintains a stable price base even though Brent oil prices have returned above 80 USD/barrel, increasing concerns about inflationary pressure.
According to Saxo Bank, in the short term, rising energy prices could cause bond yields and the USD to remain higher, thereby disadvantaging gold – an asset that does not yield yields. However, if energy prices remain high for a long time, negative impacts on economic growth could become a new supporting factor for precious metals.
The report argues that prolonged energy costs will reduce consumer purchasing power, narrow corporate profit margins and affect investment activities. At that time, the demand for holding gold as a defensive asset may increase again.
Another supporting factor comes from the latest US inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in June showed a sharp drop in energy prices, helping inflation cool down. The CPI in 12 months increased by 3.5%, down from 4.2% the previous month, while core inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.6%.
According to Saxo Bank, this development helps reduce pressure to continue tightening monetary policy in the short term. However, the market still does not have enough basis to establish a sustainable upward trend as investors continue to monitor new signals from the Fed and the diễn biến of energy prices.
Saxo Bank also believes that gold is in a accumulation phase after a strong correction since the end of January. The market is currently looking for new momentum to determine whether inflation or the risk of slowing economic growth will become the main driving factor in the second half of 2026.
According to the bank's assessment, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate in the 3,950–4,200 USD/ounce range in the near future. If it exceeds 4,200 USD/ounce, it may indicate that investors are starting to focus more on growth risks and long-term consequences of high energy prices. Conversely, if it falls below 3,950 USD/ounce, pressure from rising bond yields and a strong USD may once again dominate the market trend.
In addition, Saxo Bank said that capital flows into gold ETF funds have shown signs of stabilization after a period of strong capital withdrawal in the previous month. Meanwhile, gold buying activities by central banks continue to be maintained, creating a long-term support foundation for gold prices even when the market has not formed a clear trend.
