Gold prices struggle as US economy sends mixed signals

Employment increases but unemployment still increases

According to Kitco, two important US reports, including non-farm payrolls and existing home sales, both exceeded economic expectations, but factors such as rising unemployment rates, data that were assessed as outdated and low housing inventories continued to lead to unpredictable fluctuations.

After 43 days of the US Government's closure the longest period in history the US Department of Labor released its September non-farm payrolls report. Accordingly, the economy created 119,000 more jobs, much higher than the forecast of 53,000. Data shows that the labor market still shows a certain level of resilience despite the interruption of data collection and processing time.

However, the report also showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the forecast to remain at 4.3%. The Ministry of Labor said that the labor market has changed little since April, although the summer data adjustments continue to reflect the slowdown.

Accordingly, the August figure was adjusted down to 4,000 jobs, while in July it was adjusted down to 72,000, lower than the 79,000 initially reported.

Salary in September increased slightly. Average hourly earnings rose about 0.2%, to $36.67, below the forecast of a 0.3%. In the past 12 months, the hourly income increase reached 3.8%.

Although September data has been released, the Ministry of Labor said the agency will not release October data, as the government shutdown has limited data collection and has not met the conditions for calculating the unemployment rate this month.

Many economists also assessed the September data as "outdated", because previously, reports from the private sector in October showed a clear slowdown in the labor market.

Current home sales increase by 1.2% in October

In parallel with the labor market report, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released data showing that the housing market also improved slightly in October. Total existing home sales - including private houses, townhouses, apartments and cooperatives - increased by 1.2%, reaching 4.10 million units/year according to the seasonal adjustment, exceeding the forecast of 4.08 million. Compared to the same period in 2024, sales increased by 1.7%.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that the increase in home sales is due to buyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates in the context of government shutdowns. However, the situation is different between regions: first-time buyers face difficulties in the Northeast due to lack of supply and in the West due to high housing prices, while buyers are better supported in the Midwest thanks to many affordable prices and in the South due to enough inventory to meet demand.

The report also recorded that the number of existing houses in the month reached 1.37 million units, equivalent to 4.4 months of supply. The trung- price of all types of houses is currently 406,800 USD, up 2.1% over a year ago.

Although both the current employment and home sales figures have exceeded expectations, the gold market is still struggling around $4,060/ounce.

Gold prices remain above $4,000/ounce, continuing to move in a broad accumulation pattern. This steady development continues even when economic data has some notable changes, from adjusted employment figures to home sales showing signs of improvement.

The lack of October labor data creates a temporary gap in assessing the health of the US economic market. In the context that the two most recent reports have shown results exceeding forecasts but are affected by time factors or limited supply, the financial market is still cautious.