According to Kitco - World gold prices entered a new trading week under pressure, after a sharp decline at the end of May. Spot gold (XAU/USD) fluctuated around 4,370-4,400 USD/ounce, significantly lower than the historical peak set at the beginning of the year.
Gold prices have decreased by about 19% compared to the all-time high of 5,598 USD/ounce set on January 28. However, compared to the same period last year, the precious metal is still about 40-41% higher, showing that the long-term upward trend has not been broken, although the short-term picture is under a lot of pressure.
In the past week, US-Iran tensions re-emerged on May 28th, pulling gold prices down to the lowest level of the week, around 4,380 USD/ounce. This is considered a new test for the important support zone of 4,370-4,400 USD/ounce. However, by May 30th, the announcement of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for April at 3.8%, in line with forecasts, has triggered a significant recovery momentum.
Gold futures for August delivery increased by about 71.50 USD in this session alone, one of the clearest daily increases in the current correction cycle. By the end of the week, gold prices stabilized around 4,529-4,550 USD/ounce, but were still in a state of accumulation much lower than the historical peak.
Technically, the price structure above the week frame shows that the gold market is in a correction phase after creating a large peak. Developments from the beginning of May to now have formed a downward triangle pattern, with a flat bottom around 4,370-4,400 USD/ounce and a downward resistance line blocking upward recovery phases.
If gold prices clearly break this support zone, the 4,100 USD/ounce area may become the next target. Further, the 3,615-3,816 USD/ounce zone is considered a deeper structural support cluster. Conversely, as long as the price remains above the 4,370-4,400 USD/ounce zone, the possibility of stabilization and partial recovery to the 4,520-4,660 USD/ounce zone still has a basis.
On the daily chart, spot gold is currently trading below both the 20-day moving average, around 4.620 USD/ounce, and the 50-day moving average, around 4,750 USD/ounce. This confirms a downward trend in the medium term.
Momentum indicators also do not show clear reversal signals. The 14-day RSI index is around 48, lower than the neutral threshold of 50, showing that buying power is not strong enough to reverse the trend. The MACD indicator is still in the negative zone, while the MFI cash flow index is decreasing, reflecting cash flow withdrawal from precious metals in the recent period.
The biggest pressure on gold comes from the tough stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), high real yields and a stronger USD. The Fed still maintains interest rates in a restricted zone. In the context that US inflation is still higher than the target of 2%, the market continues to reduce expectations of the Fed's ability to soon ease monetary policy.
High real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold - an unprofitable asset. At the same time, a strong USD makes gold more expensive for international buyers, thereby putting pressure on demand.
However, geopolitical factors still create certain support for the precious metal. US-Iran nuclear negotiations continue to cause strong fluctuations for safe-haven assets. Tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Lebanon, also contribute to maintaining defense demand for gold.
In the long term, the demand picture for gold remains positive. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), total global gold demand, including decentralized trading, reached 1,231 tons in the first quarter of 2026 - a record high for the period January to March. Central banks net bought 244 tons in the first quarter, up 3% compared to the same period last year and higher than the 5-year average.
Demand for gold bars and gold coins is also high, reaching 397.7 tons in Q1/2026, up 20% compared to the previous quarter and 50% compared to the same period. This shows that the confidence of individual investors and large-asset investors is still maintained, despite the strong price adjustment.
Next week, investors will closely monitor US economic data, including JOLTS jobs data, the Fed's Beige Book, weekly jobless claims, and statements related to monetary policy.
If the labor market shows signs of cooling down or the Fed sends softer signals, gold may be supported. Conversely, persistent inflation and solid employment data may continue to put pressure on the precious metal.
