The stock market has gone through a series of impressive recovery in nearly 2 months and the VN-Index entering the peak in 2025 will inevitably have fluctuations and profit-taking pressure.
And as predicted by experts, the market entered the first trading session of the week on May 26 with widespread selling pressure increasing. There was even a time when the VN-Index "mental" 1,290 points when large and small stocks competed for a sharp decrease. However, bottom-fishing demand has entered the competition strongly, helping the market quickly rebound.
The main factor limiting the recovery momentum of the current stock market is concerns about the US tariff policy on Vietnamese goods. However, the negotiation process has progressed positively after round 2 and is expected to continue to enter the technical negotiation round in early June.
Vietnam is currently among the few countries that the US prioritizes for dialogue, while most other countries are at risk of being subject to unilateral tariffs. Along with the information that Trump Organization Group is implementing a project in Hung Yen, these are positive signals, opening up expectations for a favorable result for Vietnam.
However, according to securities experts, in the short term, cash flow in the market will not easily spread again and if the group of blue chip stocks enter a technical adjustment period, the general index may be under downward pressure. Because many middle-cap stocks have not increased sharply, the possibility of the market adjusting deeply is not large, but only a phase of differentiation adjustment.
The Vietnamese stock market has recently witnessed a rather strange phenomenon, which is that the VN-Index recovered strongly after some sessions of decline in early April, even approaching the old score area. However, many investors are still sadly waiting to see the "red" portfolio, the situation of prolonged losses, despite the market increasing.
This reflects a reality that the current recovery is mainly led by pillar stocks with large capitalization and strong influence on the index. On the contrary, most of the mid- and small-cap stocks - where cash flow is concentrated by individual investors - are still in a state of weak recovery, without a corresponding response and without a spread of cash flow. This makes market sentiment fluctuate and cautious. Profit-taking for large-cap stocks along with caution for the remainder of the VN-Index has potential technical adjustment risks.
Therefore, the stock market is likely to see an adjustment to regain balance. That is the time to shake off some small investors, but create opportunities to welcome new cash flow entering the market when there are attractive discount prices.
Investors are recommended to take short-term profits for positions that have made a profit and maintain a reasonable cash ratio, about 30% of net asset value, to proactively respond to risks of adjustment and protect holding psychology.
At present, investors should not disburse large, but wait for a clearer adjustment. At that time, it is possible to disburse the part and structure a balanced portfolio between bluechip stocks and mid- and small-cap stocks with good fundamentals.
