After a strong adjustment from the beginning of the year, gold prices are likely to continue to fluctuate around the 4,000 USD/ounce range in the remaining months of the year instead of quickly returning to a strong upward trend. This is the assessment given by StoneX in the Q3/2026 commodity outlook report.
Ms. Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis for Europe, Middle East and Asia at StoneX - a US financial services company, said that the company once predicted gold prices would fall below $4,000/ounce by the end of the year, but this scenario appeared earlier than expected when the precious metal fell below this threshold at the end of June.
According to StoneX, the main reason for the weakening of gold is a combination of instability related to the Iranian conflict, investor profit-taking activities and expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a tighter stance for longer in the face of inflationary pressure.
The report suggests that the market is currently almost only focused on interest rate prospects. The swap market is reflecting about 30% of the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by another 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, while the US core PCE index at 3.5% shows that the 2% inflation target is still quite far.
According to StoneX, the outlook for gold prices in the short term still largely depends on developments in the Middle East, especially the ability to achieve a long-term solution to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the company also believes that the months-long correction has caused most speculative investors to leave the market, thereby helping gold have more room to recover when conditions are more favorable.
StoneX does not expect gold prices to experience too strong fluctuations in the near future. If the precious metal maintains the 4,000 USD/ounce zone in the next few weeks, physical gold buying demand may improve again. In addition, central banks continue to consider gold as a risk hedging tool against inflation and the weakening of legal tender.
The report also cited the latest survey by the World Gold Council (WGC), according to which 89% of central banks expect total global gold reserves to continue to increase in the next 12 months, while 45% plan to increase their own gold holdings.
StoneX believes that the gold buying trend of the central banking sector is still one of the important supporting factors for the market. According to the company, if the Fed does not adjust policy before the fourth quarter and the European Central Bank (ECB) does not continue to raise interest rates, gold prices are likely to continue to fluctuate around the current zone before forming a new trend.
For silver, StoneX forecasts that this metal will continue to fluctuate in sync with gold in the short term, fluctuating mainly in the 55–60 USD/ounce range. However, in the long term, demand from artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles and the solar energy industry is expected to create more momentum for silver as supply from mining is unlikely to increase correspondingly.
