Gasoline-powered cars in the US are predicted to disappear much faster than the majority of the public predicted. Through predictive analysis by Scott Case, co-founder and CEO of the electric vehicle advocacy organization Recurrent, in just the next few years, the number of gasoline vehicles on the road will start to decrease sharply, starting from California this year, spreading to Colorado, Washington from 2026 and then many other states.
According to case, when the share of newly sold electric vehicles (EVs) in a state reaches about 30%, the total number of gasoline vehicles in circulation will start to decrease. When the share of new electric vehicles in a state reaches about 30%, it is a turning point for the number of gasoline-powered vehicles in circulation to start to decline, he said.
At first, many people may think that this number must be 50% to create a turning point. But Case explains that a significant number of vehicles are discarded each year due to accidents or expiration.
Currently, the whole of the United States has about 285 million vehicles in operation. Every year, 15-16 million new cars are sold, while about 12 million cars are permanently eliminated, mostly gasoline cars. According to case, this means that if electric vehicle sales reach about 4 million units per year, the number of gasoline vehicles will start to decline continuously.
We only need to achieve sales of about 4 million new electric vehicles per year nationwide so that the number of gasoline vehicles will start to decrease irreversibly, said Mr. Case.
He predicted that the entire US would reach this threshold by around 2029, although electric vehicles only accounted for about 30% of new vehicle sales that year. However, the peak of gasoline vehicles may come much earlier depending on the state.
This shift will have many consequences: Revenue from gasoline sales and oil change services is forecast to decrease in many states in just the next 1-2 years. The gas station network may narrow, especially in places where "gasoline vehicles" are early to peak. For example, California now has more guns than gas pumps, forecasting an upcoming trend.
For gasoline car owners, the infrastructure for vehicle repairs will change significantly: The gasoline car repair network may narrow, making maintenance more difficult and expensive; The value of used gasoline cars can decrease rapidly as buyers increasingly prioritize electric cars.
Petrol owners may suddenly find that their technology is getting older than expected, case said.
Meanwhile, electric vehicles are becoming an important part of the world's automobile industry, and Vietnam is no exception to this trend. 2024 has witnessed rapid growth in the Vietnamese car market in the application of electric cars with VinFast tractor heads and followed by assembled and imported car manufacturers.
According to a market research by Mordorintelligence, the scale of the Vietnamese electric vehicle market is estimated to reach 2.93 billion USD this year and is expected to reach 6.69 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% in the forecast period (2025-2030).
Electric vehicles are becoming popular across the country, mainly due to Government regulations to gradually eliminate fossil fuel vehicles, Government spending to improve public electric vehicle charging infrastructure and initiatives such as subsidies and tax refunds to encourage the application of electric vehicles. All of these measures are expected to contribute to market growth.
