According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), in the context of rising home loan interest rates and locally slowing down apartment liquidity, the problem posed is to handle the issue of supply and capital flow structure for the market.
Increasing interest rates may limit real estate speculation. However, the fact that the general level of interest rates is maintained at too high a level for a long time not only makes it difficult for people to access housing, but also causes difficulties for real estate businesses to implement projects, thereby narrowing the supply, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the market.
Conversely, lowering mortgage interest rates is also not a sustainable solution, because reality shows that prolonged low interest rates can trigger a new wave of speculation, pushing house prices up sharply, similar to what happened in the previous period”. Therefore, the problem is to ensure that cash flow goes to the right target, both controlling speculation risks and not congested real housing demand.
Credit policies need to be more differentiated, prioritizing capital flows for affordable housing, first-time homebuyers and real housing needs, while strictly controlling speculation, high leverage and projects lacking legal and cash flow feasibility," VARS analyzed.
Accordingly, credit packages specifically for first-time homebuyers and suitable housing segments need to be designed in a long-term stable direction, with interest rates lower than the general level, long loan terms and reasonable grace periods, to help buyers proactively plan their finances and avoid high interest rate risks after incentives. The targeted credit approach not only supports housing security, but also helps the market shift to the right real housing needs, improves sustainable liquidity and reduces risks for the financial system.
In the long term, according to analysts, the sustainable solution to the housing problem lies in expanding supply.
According to Cushman & Wakefield, house prices continue to be under pressure from increased input costs, including land and building materials prices, while supply in the central area is still limited. This unit forecasts that in the period 2026-2028, the Hanoi market may receive more than 68,000 new apartments, with the trend of supply continuing to shift to satellite areas.
VARS also believes that it is necessary to accelerate infrastructure development and ensure the progress of construction and projects, thereby expanding urban space to new areas, where there is a large land fund and more reasonable prices. The urban development model with a public transport orientation (TOD) needs to be further promoted, but must be linked to commitments to progress and the actual accessibility of land funds of enterprises. At the same time, it is necessary to promote the development of social housing, especially housing funds for rent in the spirit of the National Housing Fund.
Second, it is necessary to reasonably adjust the land price mechanism and adjustment coefficient, because if the new land price list is at a high level and continues to be multiplied by a large coefficient, input costs will increase sharply, eliminating the motivation for project development or forcing businesses to convert all costs into the selling price, causing people's ability to pay to decrease.
In parallel with that, diversifying capital channels for the real estate market is an inevitable requirement. Over-reliance on bank credit not only increases risks for the market but also for the entire financial system. Developing medium and long-term capital channels will help the market operate more stably and sustainably in the medium and long term.
