After a period of prolonged strong increase, apartment prices in many major cities are facing adjustment pressure as supply is gradually unlocked and purchasing power shows signs of being more cautious.
Data from Cushman & Wakefield shows that the average primary apartment selling price in Hanoi in Q4/2025 reached about 3,852 USD/m2, down 10% compared to the previous quarter but still 32% higher than the same period in 2024. The quarterly decrease mainly stemmed from the increase in supply in the mid-range segment, accounting for nearly 45% of the total new supply, thereby pulling the general price level down. However, compared to a year ago, apartment prices are still anchored at a high level.
According to Cushman & Wakefield, house prices continue to face great pressure from increased input costs, including land and construction materials prices, while land funds and supply in the central area are still limited. This unit forecasts that in the period 2026-2028, the Hanoi market may receive more than 68,000 new apartments, with the trend of project development continuing to shift to satellite areas, where land funds are still abundant and investment costs are lower.
Forecasting the price trend in the coming time, Ms. Nguyen Hoai An - Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam, Hanoi branch - said that if supply continues to increase sharply in the coming time, Hanoi apartment prices may stagnate, even move sideways for a long period.
According to Ms. An, apartment prices cannot increase forever but only increase to a threshold suitable for people's ability to pay. Current developments in Hanoi are assessed to be quite similar to the previous period of Ho Chi Minh City, when apartment prices once increased rapidly and then stagnated, even adjusted slightly for a long time before recovering with market improvement.
Stepping into 2026, many experts believe that the real estate market will move in a more cautious direction. Dr. Le Xuan Nghia - Former Vice Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Committee - said that real estate prices are unlikely to increase sharply as in the past period. Although economic growth is still expected to be maintained at a high level, about 8.5-10%, real estate supply is being strongly unlocked thanks to a series of resolutions and new laws that are starting to take effect. When supply increases faster than demand, prices tend to slow down, even stagnate in some segments and areas, requiring investors to be more cautious instead of chasing short-term price increases.
Regarding the trend of each segment, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia said that apartment prices in Hanoi may still increase but at a slower rate, while in some localities, apartment prices have recorded a downward trend compared to the previous year. This reflects the increasing differentiation of the market according to location, project quality and actual needs.
From a long-term perspective, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that with a developing economy like Vietnam, real estate prices are very difficult to fall deeply. Although the general expectation of society is that housing prices will fall to make it easier for people to access, reality shows that land prices are continuously increasing, construction costs are escalating and interest rates tend to increase, creating great pressure on the price level. According to him, interest rates in the coming time are likely to increase and this is a factor that continues to impact in the direction of keeping real estate prices at a high level.
However, the current price level has risen to a very high level, making it more difficult to seek short-term profits. In this context, the possibility of real estate "surfing" is no longer easy. However, in the long term, the housing segment is still assessed to have room for growth when real demand is large while supply is not fully met, especially in large cities.
