According to the report in early June of Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC), the situation of late payment of bond principal by real estate enterprises has not ended. Some cases of enterprises announcing payment delays are the group of companies of Hung Thinh Corp with a bond value of about VND 5,900 billion.
As of the end of May, the total value of corporate bonds with late payment obligations is estimated at VND53,600 billion, with the real estate group alone accounting for nearly 59.4%. This reflects the pressure to repay debts and credit risks that still exist, especially in real estate businesses in the context of cash flow not really improving, VDSC's report stated.
According to a report by credit rating agency S&I Ratings, the volume of late-payment bonds in the first quarter of the year was about VND21,500 billion, of which the value of real estate bonds was VND10,400 billion, accounting for 49%. S&I Ratings commented that with the above data, it can be seen that financial pressure on real estate businesses will continue to increase in the coming time.
This unit predicts that the value of maturing bonds will increase sharply in the last 3 quarters of the year with more than 200,000 billion VND. Of which, VND26,500 billion of bonds had previously extended their terms. The real estate industry accounts for half of the maturity in the last 3 quarters of the year, estimated at VND103,000 billion. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, the maturity volume of this group will reach 57,500 billion.
Experts assess that the real estate group still faces difficulties in accessing new credit and refinancing through bond issuance channels due to legal problems and underlying cash flow, causing the maturity ratio to not decrease much in the 2025 - 2026 period.
In the first months of 2025, although the supply and absorption rate of the real estate market recovered, the operating cash flow of real estate businesses remained negative, mainly due to investors increasing borrowing to invest in projects.
According to experts, difficulties in both supply and demand have caused real estate businesses to be "afraid" of issuing bonds.
The current problem for real estate businesses is the story of inventory clearance. According to data from many market research units, more than 90% of inventories are currently in the mid-high-end segment, with an average selling price of more than 90 million VND/m2, beyond the affordability of the majority of people.
In contrast, basket of inventories in the affordable segment (under 55 million VND/m2) only accounts for about 10% but the selling price exceeds 3 billion VND. And in the context of many economic fluctuations, buyers tend to look for options that suit their financial capacity. This makes high-priced inventory products even less attractive.
Experts say that real estate businesses are still forced to restructure their portfolios and adjust product development strategies.
Focusing on customers with real needs, providing products suitable for the majority's financial capacity, possessing favorable locations and clear legal documents will be the key to unblocking liquidity and gradually solving the inventory problem.
