3 reasons why apartment prices are difficult to decrease
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - Southern Regional Director of batdongsan. com. vn - said that the common view is that when interest rates increase or the world economy fluctuates, cash flow often shifts to safe channels such as savings or gold, thereby putting pressure on real estate prices to go down. However, market data in recent years shows a different trend.
According to data from batdongsan. com. vn, the average apartment price in Hanoi has increased from about 40 million VND/m2 to nearly 87 million VND/m2 in the past few years. Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, the price also increased from about 46 million VND/m2 to about 75 million VND/m2.
Explaining this phenomenon, Mr. Tuan said that there are 3 main reasons why apartment prices are difficult to decrease.
First of all, real estate is a market with a large lag. When the market weakens, the most obvious sign is usually a sharp decrease in liquidity, while prices have not adjusted immediately. Price reductions usually only occur locally in some projects or in cases where urgent sales are needed.
Second, the supply of apartments in recent years has been quite limited due to legal obstacles and the number of new projects being implemented is not large. When the supply is scarce, investors tend to maintain prices or adjust to increase, making the possibility of a deep decline in the market difficult to happen.
Third, most real estate holders do not suffer too much financial pressure. Many homeowners do not borrow capital from banks, so they tend to keep assets waiting for a more favorable time instead of selling them at low prices.
Real housing demand and long-term cash flow continue to lead the market
According to Mr. Tuan, interest rate increases mainly slow down the trading market but are not enough to create pressure to cause house prices to fall sharply.
Regarding the prospects for 2026, Mr. Tuan said that the most potential segments are still products serving real housing needs or capable of generating cash flow. In which, apartments in large urban areas and satellite areas with good connectivity infrastructure are likely to continue to play a leading role in market liquidity.
In addition, low-rise houses in urban areas that are well-planned and have clear legal status are also predicted to attract customers who need to accumulate long-term assets.
For the investment segment, the market trend is gradually prioritizing products that can be exploited in practice, instead of speculative investments. This shows that 2026 is likely to be a playground for investors with long-term vision, financial discipline and product selection based on actual usage value.
New supply and expanded infrastructure shape market trends
Regarding supply, the apartment market is expected to show signs of recovery when new projects begin to return. However, this supply may be unevenly distributed and strongly shifted to satellite areas, where land funds are still large and regional linkage infrastructure is being strongly invested.
The supply of social housing is forecast to increase in the coming time thanks to the Government's policies to promote affordable housing development.
According to Mr. Tuan, in the coming period, the apartment market may continue to differentiate. Projects located in the central area or associated with key infrastructure axes still maintain great attraction, while satellite cities will increasingly play an important role in meeting real housing needs and urban population expansion.
According to Savills, apartment prices in major cities are likely to continue to remain high in the coming time. In 2026, the supply of apartments in Hanoi is expected to reach about 18,454 units, mainly in the mid- and high-end segments.
Ms. Do Thu Hang - Senior Director, Research and Consulting Department of Savills Hanoi - said that in the short term, primary apartment prices may continue to increase. In the secondary market, prices have now exceeded primary in all segments, showing a large demand for projects that can be handed over immediately and have a quality living environment.
