Housing liquidity recovers, supply remains limited
According to Savills' assessment, in the context of the macroeconomy continuing to maintain stable growth momentum, the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City is recording a clear recovery in liquidity, especially in the apartment segment. In 2025, the country's GDP increased by 8%, along with FDI capital reaching 38.4 billion USD, contributing to strengthening the confidence of both buyers and project developers.
However, in contrast to the improvement in liquidity, the supply of new housing is still limited as many projects continue to wait for legal procedures to be completed or only implement the next phases. This makes the short-term trajectory of the market continue to depend on the level of improvement in land fund approval and development, while contributing to maintaining a high price level.
Faced with the reality that the supply of the mid-range segment is increasingly scarce, buyers are predicted to gradually shift to suburban areas and neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong, where they have more choices in terms of prices. Along with that, the development of large-scale urban projects and inter-regional connecting infrastructure systems are strongly promoting the trend of expanding the housing market outside the central area.
It is forecasted that in the period 2026-2028, the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market is expected to add about 58,000 units from 80 projects, of which the East area accounts for about 50% of the supply and continues to play a leading role in the market. However, in the short term, new supply still mainly comes from the next phases of existing projects or restarted projects, reflecting the reality that the project approval and development process still needs more time to truly improve.
Developments in the past year show that market liquidity has improved significantly. The apartment segment recorded about 11,500 transactions, bringing the absorption rate to 82%, the highest level in the past 5 years. The fourth quarter of 2025 alone recorded about 5,000 transactions, showing a clear improvement in demand at the end of the year.
The average selling price of primary apartments reached 102 million VND/m2, continuing the upward trend as new supply is mainly concentrated in the mid- and high-end segments. The segment over 110 million VND/m2 currently accounts for about 56% of new supply, while products under 50 million VND/m2 only account for 12%, showing a significant imbalance in the product structure in the market.
Mr. Troy Griffiths - Deputy General Director of Savills Vietnam - commented: "The apartment market is showing a clear recovery in liquidity, but supply is still limited and concentrated in high-priced segments. This continues to create differentiation between groups of buyers.
In the long term, the completion of the legal framework, the progress of removing obstacles in project development and the completion of large infrastructure projects are expected to contribute to improving supply. In particular, urban development models associated with public transport (Transit-Oriented Development - TOD) can open up additional housing supply along key infrastructure axes.
Villas and townhouses. The Great City leads new supply.
The villa and townhouse segment also recorded a shift in supply to areas outside the city center, associated with the development of megacities and inter-regional connectivity infrastructure. Market momentum is likely to concentrate in areas with clear planning and convenient connectivity, while the price level is increasingly dependent on location and access to key traffic routes.
This development trend is expected to continue to be maintained in the coming years. By 2028, the market is expected to add about 15,500 units from 22 projects, with about 90% of the supply concentrated in areas outside the city center such as Can Gio, Binh Chanh, Nha Be and District 12. According to market data, in 2025, the new supply of this segment increased sharply to about 4,100 units, bringing the total primary supply to 4,800 units, an increase of 397% year-on-year. The number of transactions reached about 2,000 units, reflecting a significant interest in large-scale projects in suburban areas.
The average selling price reached about 233 million VND/m2 of land, a decrease compared to the same period last year because new supply is more concentrated in areas with lower price levels than the city center. However, for areas far from existing residential centers, real long-term housing needs may still face some uncertain factors, especially when infrastructure development progress and community formation are not synchronized.
