Talking to Lao Dong, Mr. Tran Minh Tien - Director of the One Mount Group Center for Market Research and Customer Insight said that the developments of the Hanoi apartment market in the first 9 months of the year were quite positive, even exceeding expectations compared to last year.
After a vibrant year 2024, this momentum continues to be maintained (September 2025), with some vibrant times similar to 2024. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, Hanoi recorded about 8,100 new apartments for sale, a slight decrease of 9% compared to the same period in 2024 but still higher than the average of the last 3 years (2022-2024).
Compared to Ho Chi Minh City, the third quarter context recorded the supply of apartments in this area reaching more than 5,500 units and increasing sharply compared to the same period; about 60% of the supply came from Binh Duong (old).
Looking at the entire 9 months, the market's excitement comes from three main factors including real housing demand; investment cash flow returning; flexible sales policies of investors.
Regarding real housing demand, a survey by One Mount Group in the first half of the year shows that demand for housing in general and apartments in particular in families with incomes above 20 million VND/month in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is still high; nearly 80% of survey participants said they have real estate needs, most of whom plan to buy in the next 1-2 years; apartments are a priority product.
Regarding investment cash flow, about 67% of survey participants are in the group with investment needs, of which the short-term investment group "surfs" only about 10%; most of them are aimed at cash flow investment, medium and long-term. This trend will continue in 2024 and the first 9 months of 2025 when the macro context is positive, interest rates remain low, and Vietnam's economy is stable compared to the region and the world. Investors are more cautious after the hot period of increase, but there is still investment motivation.
Regarding sales policy, from 2024, many investors will apply cash flow payment schedule (for example, about 5% per quarter for 2-3 years until handover), helping buyers/investors reduce monthly payment pressure. In addition, flexible selling prices according to payment options (buy directly at one level, borrow from another bank), creating more options for customers.
In the third quarter of 2025, the average price of primary apartments in Hanoi is about 85.6 million VND/m2; Ho Chi Minh City is about 95.4 million VND/m2, all increased by over 20% over the same period last year.
If we only consider the newly opened supply in the third quarter, the opening price is about 103 million VND/m2 in Hanoi and about 130 million VND/m2 in Ho Chi Minh City, showing that apartment prices are still increasing sharply and there are no signs of cooling down.
However, the absorption of newly opened projects is still good, thanks to real housing and investment demand, reflecting relatively sustainable growth; there are no signs of lack of demand at this time. The current price level continues the increase in 2024, not only in apartments but also in other segments following this trend.
Regarding price prospects, Mr. Tran Minh Tien said that the expectation of a decrease in commercial apartments in the coming time is difficult to achieve due to increased input costs (land, construction materials, etc.), and increasingly limited land funds.
Accordingly, prices can only be significantly "adjusted" when social housing development policies are implemented more drastically. Although the policy was issued last year, the delay to get into practice is still large; more time is needed. The Government's efforts are focusing on expanding the scope of social housing purchase, removing procedures for investors.
"It is expected that in at least 6-12 months when the supply of social housing increases, with quality and location, and good operation, this segment will significantly support the problem of supply-demand balance, thereby contributing to controlling price levels" - Mr. Tien said.
