The real estate market is recording many notable developments, supply is increasing and is forecast to continue to increase sharply in the coming years as legal obstacles are gradually removed. Experts believe that the market in the 2026-2030 period will enter a new development cycle with clearer differentiation, speculative cash flow gradually narrowing and real housing demand increasingly playing a leading role.
Commenting on market prospects in the coming years, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Hiep - Chairman of Global Real Estate Joint Stock Company said that real estate may enter a completely different development cycle compared to the previous period.
According to Mr. Hiep, the period 2020-2024 recorded a situation of supply not meeting demand, especially in the mid-range housing and apartment segments. The main reason comes from the slow progress of project approval and implementation, causing supply to not meet the actual needs of the market.
However, from 2025 onwards, along with the process of removing institutional obstacles, many projects have been restarted and newly licensed. This is expected to create a strong increase in supply in the 2027-2028 period.
However, according to Mr. Hiep, increased supply does not mean real estate prices will decrease. In the context that the construction industry is facing many difficulties, input costs such as labor and materials have increased by about 20%, causing project development costs to increase significantly.
Although supply is increasing, real estate prices are not decreasing accordingly. This is a rather special phenomenon, rarely occurring according to the usual rules of the market," Mr. Hiep assessed.
He also warned that if this situation persists and inventory is not effectively handled, the market may face great financial pressures for both businesses and the credit system, thereby arising risks to the overall stability of the market.
Meanwhile, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) said that current management policies are increasingly aimed at the goal of developing a stable and healthy real estate market, limiting speculation and promoting products to serve real housing needs.
According to Mr. Dinh, a positive sign is that the supply of projects is gradually being removed. When many projects are legally cleared and return to the market, homebuyers and investors will have more choices. However, the simultaneous appearance of many projects also increases competitive pressure on selling prices, product quality and deployment capacity.
Notably, the Chairman of VARS said that speculative cash flow will tend to shrink in the near future.
He said that the Government is operating in a more flexible direction, continuing to prioritize capital flows for necessary areas, while strengthening control over areas that distort the market or show many speculative activities.
Regarding the price level, Mr. Dinh said that the State is making efforts to regulate house prices to approach a more reasonable level, creating opportunities for people to access housing. However, input factors such as land, labor, construction materials and fluctuations from the world market are still barriers that make it difficult for real estate prices to fall deeply.
According to the Chairman of VARS, the market is entering an increasingly strong differentiation phase. If previously it was only necessary to own real estate to be able to trade, now investors are not only interested in location but also focus on project quality and investor capacity. Small, fragmented projects with limited infrastructure will become increasingly difficult to compete.
The current market is aimed at real values: living truthfully, using truthfully, exploiting truthfully and creating real value. Only products that meet those criteria are attractive to investors and buyers," Mr. Dinh emphasized.
