Chelsea is still in the race to win a Champions League ticket next season. However, there is no guarantee that Liam Rosenior's team can finish with a ticket to participate in this tournament next season. According to Opta, there is a 98% chance that the Premier League will have the 5th ticket to participate in the 2026-2027 Champions League. Chelsea is currently 5th, but if they lose to Arsenal tonight, their remaining journey will be much more difficult.
In 5 times Chelsea won the Premier League (2005, 2006, 2010, 2015, 2017), they all had good head-to-head record with the remaining 5 teams in the Big Six group. In total in 5 championship seasons, with 50 head-to-head matches with this group, Chelsea won 30 matches, drew 10 and lost 10.
In recent years without winning the championship, Chelsea has only often "bullied" Tottenham when they have defeated Spurs in the last 5 Premier League encounters. Last season, Tottenham, despite winning the Europa League, had very poor performances in the Premier League. Things are not much better this season for the "Roosters". Therefore, victories against this representative in the Big Six group do not have much meaning for The Blues.
Tonight, Chelsea's opponent will be Arsenal. In the last 10 matches against each other in all competitions, Chelsea has not been able to beat their city rivals. The last time Chelsea won at the Emirates in the Premier League was 5 years ago. Then on April 11, if they could not beat Man City in that match, Chelsea also had a 12-match winless streak against this opponent. The last time The Blues defeated The Citizens was the 2021 Champions League final.
With the next opponent in the Big Six group being Man United, Chelsea has only won 2/16 of their most recent Premier League matches. The last time The Blues won at Old Trafford was from May 5, 2013.
After Man United will be Liverpool at Anfield. Enzo Maresca's Chelsea have had 2 recent victories against this opponent in the Premier League on May 4, 2025 and October 4, 2025. However, before that, The Blues could not beat Liverpool in all competitions in 10 consecutive encounters. In those 10 encounters, there were 7 in the Premier League, once again proving that Chelsea's ability to face Liverpool is also very poor.
Chelsea understands very well that the Top 5 race already has 2 positions for Arsenal and Man City, which are teams competing for the championship. Therefore, their task is to sneak into the remaining group of 3 teams. The competitors are Aston Villa, Man United, Liverpool and even possibly Brentford and Everton. The league has 11 more rounds, including tonight's matches that will close, all changes can happen. Not to mention that Chelsea will also play in the Champions League and FA Cup, so the possibility of losing form due to losing breath can come at any time.
The current generation of Chelsea players has won resoundingly against PSG at the FIFA Club World Cup and Barcelona in the Champions League. Therefore, they need to recreate this level in the domestic arena against big opponents. Chelsea this year is not competing for the championship but needs to show that they are still a candidate team in the following seasons, once they improve their performance against representatives in the Big Six group.
The statistics above show that Chelsea is still very far from the standards they set at their peak. The more they struggle to overcome this psychological barrier, the longer they will expect the next championship.
