Avoiding talking about positions on the rankings is always a familiar refrain at press conferences after matches of Premier League coaches. Pep Guardiola once affirmed after the 0-1 defeat to Aston Villa last month: "Our task is not to look at the rankings."
Although everyone understands that this is just a formal statement, there is reason to take that opinion seriously this season.
After 11 rounds, the Premier League rankings are witnessing a rare phenomenon. Arsenal are just four points behind Man City at the top, Wolves are seven points behind the top the biggest gap ever recorded at the moment. However, the real difference lies in the middle of the rankings, where just one win could take the 10th team straight to 3rd place.
Crystal Palace (10) and Chelsea (3) are only 3 points apart the lowest level in history since the Premier League dropped to 20 clubs in the 1995-1996 season, except for 3 seasons in 2002-2003, 2005 2006 and 2024-2025.
Normally, the average gap between 3rd and 10th place after 11 rounds is up to 7 points, some years up to 12. However, the 2025-2026 season has shown a more intense Premier League race than ever.
Unpredictable characteristics of the initial stage
Ange Postecoglou said last season, when Tottenham started well: "There's no point in looking at the rankings at the moment, it's the end of the season that's important." The reality proves his caution when Spurs have been disastrously dropped to 17th place and this strategist himself was fired, even though the team has won the Europa League championship.
Normally, from the round of 16 onwards, the Top 6 will start to separate from the group in the middle of the group. However, the 2024-2025 season did not work as usual when Nottingham Forest (3rd) and Aston Villa (10th) were only 6 points apart. Mid-table teams such as Nottingham, Bournemouth and Brighton have broken the previously stable order in the group.
This season, that trend continues. Thomas Frank even commented: "This is the most competitive season in my 5 years in the Premier League." His Tottenham is currently in 5th place but only ahead of Bournemouth (9.9th) thanks to goal difference.
The tight pressure in the mid-table region comes from the fact that the entire Big Six group has fewer points than the historical average after 11 rounds, while the remaining 12/14 teams have more points than normal. That made it impossible for the top to separate.
Statistics show that the rankings after 11 rounds are 90% correlated with the end-of-season rankings. However, there are also exceptions such as Birmingham City in the 2009-2020 season, which topped the table if only counting a series of 11 matches from October 24 to December 28, 2009 (7 wins, 4 draws) but they only finished the season in 9th place.
This means that although the data is unlikely to cause disruption, overall, this period is still very reliable. However, if the Premier League continues to maintain the current high level of competition, this correlation will decline.
The tense race on the rankings makes things more difficult to analyze when just a different shot, a rare masterpiece or a wrong decision by a referee can change the fate of a team for the whole season.
Ruben Amorim said directly after the 2-2 draw with Tottenham: "We have a lot of problems. Sometimes the results show that Man United are improving but in reality there is still a lot of work to do".
Last season, the Man United captain even spoke more clearly: "I don't look at the rankings, just look at what the team has shown and what needs improvement."
The Premier League is entering an unprecedented period of competition
The current breathtaking race on the rankings not only reflects the progress of the midfield, it also shows the slowdown of the big guys. When the Top 6 could not break through and the group in between progressed simultaneously, now just 1 win could change the whole season.
Maybe it is true what the coaches say when at this time, it is best not to look at the rankings. The Premier League will have many dangerous curves ahead and the real picture is only gradually emerging after the upcoming turbulent weeks.
