The wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is contributing to bringing the US stock market to new heights. However, amid the optimistic picture of the "gold mine" for profits from this technology, Wall Street investors are more cautious than ever, worried that the risk could cause AI profit flows to soon deviate from the expected trajectory.
Since ChatGPT was launched at the end of 2022, AI has become the focus of global investment. According to Citigroup, nearly 50% of the S&P 500's $57 trillion capitalization is currently "high or medium" exposed to AI.
As a result, the index has risen more than 13% since the start of 2025, while Nasdaq composite, where many technology stocks are concentrated, has risen to 17%.
However, experts warn that the AI market will have many fluctuations.
Earlier this year, the launch of the low-cost AI model DeepSeek (China) caused technology stocks to plummet, fueling concerns about a huge "storm" of spending on artificial intelligence technology. A similar scenario recurred in August, before the AI group recovered.
Mr. Steve Lowe, strategist at Thrivent Financial, commented: "Although the opportunities in the artificial intelligence sector are huge, most of the expectations have been reflected in stock prices. This makes the risk of market adjustment more worrying.
According to Barclays, technology giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle are expected to double their spending to $500 billion/year from 2024 to 2027 to develop AI infrastructure and cloud computing.
However, this huge investment rate could cause profit margins to narrow if they do not bring the same efficiency.
Mr. Michael Arone, a strategist at State Street Investment Management, warned and raised the question: "The interesting thing is whether companies are spending faster than growth rate, causing free cash flow to erode."
In addition, overlapping investment relationships in the AI ecosystem, such as Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI, have also raised concerns about system risks.
Such a close financial and operational relationship can have a domino effect if a link has problems, said Irene Tunkel of BCA Research.
In addition to financial factors, the risk of energy shortage for AI data centers is also a big challenge.
Experts are also concerned that if AI demand weakens or productivity does not increase as expected, this huge wave of investment could become a double-edged sword.
Mr. Patrick Ryan (investment strategist and Head of Multi-Asset Solutions) warned: "If there is a time when people start to doubt whether this huge investment is really effective, it will be a dangerous signal for the whole market."
