In yesterday's trading session, January 6, selling pressure increased towards the end of the session, causing the VN-Index to fall sharply and close near the session's lowest level. Liquidity continued to be high and exceeded the 20-session average (+6.33%) plus a fairly large decrease, showing that investors are still wary of risks at this point.
Looking back, the stock market showed negative signs in the last trading session of the week on January 3 when the VN-Index suddenly dropped by more than 15 points, breaking through the support level of 1,260 points. At the same time, important indicators all show that selling pressure may continue in the coming sessions before finding a clearer balance between supply and demand.
The market is facing a lot of negative information, such as domestic PMI falling below 50 points in December 2024, derivative maturity coming early on January 16, 2025, profit-taking psychology before the Lunar New Year holiday and unfavorable developments from short-term inter-market factors such as the rebound of the DXY index, while global stock indexes are in a downward trend, easily causing the VN-Index to be quickly swept away.
In the sharp decline last weekend, the pressure appeared mainly in the large-cap group, especially the VN30 basket, which is very consistent with the fluctuations often seen before derivatives expiration when using pillars to create large fluctuations. The risk in the upcoming developments depends on the signal of the short-term trend collapse of the market and for this to happen, the phenomenon of pillar collapse needs to be closely monitored.
Commenting on the market trend, analysts from CSI Securities Company gave a cautious view that investors should limit buying at a reduced average price, and gradually reduce the proportion of stocks that violate the principle of capital preservation. In the immediate future, they should patiently wait for the VN-Index to test the support level of 1,230 points before returning to a new buying position.
Asean Securities Company expressed its view that, in the short term, due to two factors: the State Bank has started net injection and the DXY index related to the exchange rate has slightly adjusted in the last two consecutive sessions, the stock market may have short-term recovery sessions in the coming sessions. However, the positive trend of the market will only be more certain after the DXY index shows signs of a stronger decline and the world markets establish a clearer short-term recovery trend in the context of the increasingly attractive valuation of the VN-Index.
Selling pressure is reaching its peak, so sell-offs should consider choosing times when the market recovers or at least technical recovery sessions of stocks to restructure their positions. New buying positions are facing favorable disbursement opportunities when prices are experiencing strong discounts.
Analysts recommend that groups of stocks with good growth momentum, a stable growth structure, a tight short-term price base and attractive growth potential are the qualities that create a potential stock in the future. The 2024 business results announcement season is about to enter a vibrant period, promising to create positive breakthroughs for businesses with good fundamentals.
A report recently released by MBS Research forecasts that the entire stock market's profits in the fourth quarter of 2024 will grow by 25% compared to the same period in 2023, the highest quarterly profit since the second quarter of 2022. The entire market's profits in 2024 could increase by 18% compared to 2023, marking the beginning of a period of recovery and growth.
MBS Research expects positive profit growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 to create a premise for listed enterprises in particular and the stock market in general to make a breakthrough in 2025.
