VN-Index entered the first days of 2025 quite slowly with adjustment sessions and gradually decreasing liquidity, most stocks did not fluctuate too much.
In the last session of the week, with many negative information, VN-Index had a strong slide of more than 15 points, plunging straight into the important short-term support zone around MA200 in the narrow range of 1,250 - 1,260 points. Many banking stocks, which were the launching pad for VN-Index to fly high in recent times, suddenly faced strong correction pressure.
The derivative maturity date is coming early on January 16, 2025, the profit-taking psychology before the Lunar New Year holiday and unfavorable developments from short-term inter-market factors such as the increase of the DXY index, while global stock indexes are in a downward trend, easily causing the VN-Index to be quickly swept away.
In addition, there are many factors affecting major markets. Globally, the US faced a record high level of credit card defaults, reaching $46 billion in the first 9 months of 2024, reflecting the great financial pressure from inflation and high interest rates. Weakness in consumer spending, especially among low-income households, could reduce the US economic growth rate from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025.
This affects global stock markets, especially industries that depend on consumption and exports to the US, and increases capital flow fluctuations in emerging markets like Vietnam.
Regarding the exchange rate issue, experts from DSC Securities Company analyzed that in 2025, the USD/VND exchange rate is expected to continue to face many challenges when Donald Trump's trade policies are implemented. The imposition of a 60% tax on Chinese goods and a 20% tax on imported goods from other countries will cause the USD to appreciate, putting downward pressure on the VND.
In addition, foreign investment flows are at risk of shifting, negatively affecting Vietnam's exports. It is forecasted that VND may depreciate by 2.5-5% in 2025, although the domestic foreign currency supply and demand situation remains stable.
"However, we believe that the State Bank of Vietnam can flexibly manage to reduce fluctuations by increasing interest rates of Big 4 banks. With a prudent monetary policy and interest rate adjustments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), exchange rate pressure can be controlled, avoiding major disruptions to the economy," DSC experts said.
According to the assessment of analysts at DSC Securities Company, in the current context, VN-Index is likely to face correction pressure early this week to retest the 1,240-point mark. However, DSC experts believe that the possibility of breaking through the 1,240-point mark is unlikely. The base scenario is that VN-Index will bounce back at the 1,240-point mark, then recover above this mark to have a candle with a short leg within the week.
Experts from HSC Securities Company commented that selling pressure is on the verge of reaching a climax, so sell-off activities should consider choosing times when the market recovers or at least technical recovery sessions of stocks to restructure the proportion. The 2024 business results announcement season is about to enter a vibrant phase, promising to create positive breakthroughs for businesses with good fundamentals.
