The Vietnamese stock market last week conquered the psychological threshold of 1,300 points and remained above this mark, despite strong profit-taking pressure from a part of investors. Last week, the VN-INDEX index recorded two increases and three decreases, but the weekly closing price still increased by 8.6 points (+0.7%) to 1,305.36 points. Cash flow is fast-moving between industry groups, driven by the separate stories of each group of stocks.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, commented that the highlight of the past week was important information affecting major industry groups.
In particular, the steel industry received information about the imposition of defense taxes, the real estate market had positive signals when some residential projects were legally removed, and expectations for the KRX trading system to continue supporting the securities group. These factors have helped the market maintain its upward momentum in the context of increased profit-taking pressure and many unfavorable fluctuations in the international market.
A notable development this week was the announcement by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on imported goods from Europe, while affirming to maintain the tariffs on Mexico and Canada as planned on March 4, and impose an additional 10% on Chinese goods. Although Vietnam has not been included in the list of taxpayers, risks from international trade policies still need to be closely monitored.
"With the above factors, the market can continue to re-evaluate the 1,300-point area early next week. Developments in this region will play a decisive role in the short-term trend of VN-INDEX. If the index maintains above the 1,300-point mark, the market may continue to increase, towards a higher resistance zone in the range of 1,320-1,340 points. In a less positive scenario, if VN-INDEX cannot keep this zone, there is a high possibility of an adjustment, pulling the index back to the support zone of 1,280 points, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh predicted.
Therefore, investors need to proactively prepare for both possible scenarios. In particular, it is necessary to control the leverage ratio at a safe level, proactively reduce the proportion of stocks in the group that has increased sharply and fallen into the overbought area.
At the same time, it is possible to consider shifting the portfolio to midcaps stocks in some potential industries such as electricity, residential real estate and exports. This will help manage risks more effectively in the context of the market continuing to fluctuate strongly in the coming time.
