After a fairly impressive recovery of more than 50 points yesterday, September 11, the Vietnamese stock market continued to perform well in the weekend session of September 12. At the end of the year, the VN-Index increased by more than 9.5 points to 1,667.26 points. Liquidity on HoSE decreased, the matched value reached about VND 28,900 billion.
Although most of the session's closing stocks are blue, cash flow focusing on some pillar stocks such as VIC, HPG, VNM, MSN is the main driving force for the VN-Index to increase positive scores today. Caution still exists, so liquidity today's session is weak, at a level lower than the 20-day average.
Foreign transactions continued to be a minus point when they net sold a total of VND1,196 billion in today's session. On HoSE alone, foreign investors have net sold around VND1,145 billion.
Investors assess that the VN-Index will have to conquer the resistance level at the 1,690-1,700 point area, this will be a big challenge when the index enters the historical peak. Investors' expectations are based on the boost from banking stocks. This group of stocks has been in a downward trend for the past 2 weeks, so if this group can attract cash flow, investors can expect new peaks for the VN-Index.
However, what experts are concerned about in the current period is the quite sharp decline in cash flow into the market. When the VN-Index increased beyond the 1,500-point peak, foreign investors returned to net sell nearly VND50,000 billion in August and early September alone.
Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have net sold VND81,500 billion even though the Vietnamese stock market is about to be upgraded by FTSE. Internal shareholders also net sold VND2,500 billion in August. Issues and IPOs estimated at nearly VND30,000 billion in the third quarter of 2025 will also contribute to reducing investors' cash balance and purchasing power.
Combined with exchange rate pressure, interest rates and the increase in gold prices, newly paid cash flow has stagnated at the end of August, causing trading value to decline. On the contrary, the record high margin from the second quarter of 2025 continued to increase sharply in the third quarter, causing the margin to be converted to cash, capitalization and liquidity to continue to reach record highs, posing a potential risk of selling pressure when the market adjusted deep enough.
Unlike the period of 2023-2024 when the trading market was gloomy, most of the margin increase was due to loan transactions of large shareholders and business owners to serve business capital needs. In recent months, along with increased liquidity, margin has been used more by individual and institutional customers to serve the need to optimize investment profits and short-term trading.
Therefore, experts are warning about the potential for a 10%-15% correction of the VN-Index this September. Portfolio restructuring and risk management will be a priority for investors during this period.
