"thirst" for capital and liquidity pressure
According to the analysis of Associate Professor, Dr. Pham Manh Hung, Deputy Director of the Institute of Banking Science Research ( banking Academy), the capital demand of the economy is very "hot". As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, credit growth has reached a very high level of 13.4%, the highest growth rate compared to the same period in many recent years.
However, Associate Professor, Dr. Hung also pointed out a "significant difference" when the growth rate of capital mobilization only reached 9.7%.
This imbalance has pushed the lending rate on the whole system's mobilization rate (LDR - Loan-to-Deposit Ratio) to a very high level, estimated at about 98%. Basically, this means that commercial banks have almost completely used up the capital mobilized for lending and the room to expand additional credit is gradually running out.
As liquidity becomes narrow, a competition to attract deposits is inevitable.
"To meet the demand for large credit disbursement in the fourth quarter - the peak period... banks are forced to increase interest rates to compete to attract deposit sources" - Mr. Hung explained.
The inevitable consequence of the increase in "input" (mold interest rates) costs is the pressure on the "output" interest rate level (lending interest rates), even though there will be delays. The Deputy Director of the Bank's Institute for Scientific Research predicted: "Banks will find it difficult to maintain low lending levels as in the first period of 2025... Therefore, the average lending interest rate in the fourth quarter may increase slightly compared to the third quarter of 2025".
Main driving force from the real estate market
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets - assessed that we are in a period where the real estate market needs capital and has good prospects.
The capital demand of the real estate market does not only come from investors to develop projects, but also from individual investors and home buyers. After a period of market adjustment, the return of transactions has led to increased credit demand.
However, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu also warned that the market is "struggling with risks", needing help to balance. The large demand for capital from a certain level of risk always makes banks cautious. However, the capital absorption of this market is very realistic and is one of the main driving forces creating current credit pressure.
According to Dr. Hieu, one of the balancing solutions is to "reduc the price of real estate in big cities".
International context - a ray of hope in many ways
While domestic interest rate pressure is increasing due to internal reasons (the difference between mobilization and credit), the international monetary context seems to be sending a reverse signal, which may support policy management to some extent.
Recently, Mr. Vu Duy Khanh - Director of the Analysis Center at SmartInvest Securities JSC - made a comment on the US monetary policy in the seminar "attraction of asset classes".
According to him, "the Fed is likely to lower interest rates". If the US Federal Reserve (FED) does indeed cut interest rates, the USD on the international market may cool down. This will reduce direct pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate.
When exchange rate pressure decreases, the State Bank of Vietnam will have more "room" to operate domestic monetary policy, more flexible in using its tools to support economic growth goals, even creating conditions to reduce interest rates.
However, experts agree that domestic liquidity pressure is a factor that affects more directly and immediately. The Fed's interest rate cut, if any, will also take time to penetrate. Therefore, the forecast of domestic lending interest rates being unlikely to decrease, even " slightly increasing" in the fourth quarter of 2025, is still a scenario with higher realities.
