These are the assessments of Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet (photo) - an economic expert, lecturer at the University of Economics (Vietnam National University, Hanoi) - in an interview with Lao Dong Newspaper.
According to data from the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) in the first 6 months of 2026, Vietnam's trade deficit is about 16.65 billion USD. How do you assess this figure, is this a worrying indicator?
- Short-term trade deficit is not necessarily a negative signal if most of the imports serve investment, expand production capacity and prepare for long-term growth. Vietnam's goal should not only be to increase import and export turnover, but to increase the value created and retained domestically. The important thing is not how much to export, but how much value Vietnam retains after each USD export.
Since 2023, when international production and trade activities returned to normal after the COVID-19 epidemic, Vietnam has maintained high import and export growth and mainly trade surplus. However, the trade surplus ratio on total turnover decreased from about 4.15% in 2023 to 3.15% in 2024 and to about 2.15% in 2025. This trend shows that the added value of the economy retained from exports is increasingly narrowing due to its large dependence on imports of raw materials, components and equipment for processing and assembly. In other words, trade turnover is increasing rapidly but the value created domestically has not increased correspondingly.
So how will that affect businesses, sir?
- As profit margins become thinner, businesses will tend to close down production ecosystems to reduce risks instead of expanding supplier networks. This is especially evident in the electronics, computers, technology equipment and semiconductor industries - sectors that are contributing a large proportion to Vietnam's export turnover.
FDI enterprises continue to use familiar suppliers in the global value chain instead of expanding to domestic enterprises. Meanwhile, Vietnamese enterprises are also not enthusiastic about investing in supporting industries because of large investment costs, long capital recovery time but increasingly low profits. That is the vicious circle that makes Vietnam still increase rapidly in trade scale but domestic added value has not been improved correspondingly.
According to you, in the coming time, which are the areas Vietnam needs to prioritize to create breakthroughs in productivity and added value?
- If Vietnam continues to compete directly in areas without advantages, it will be difficult to create breakthroughs. Instead, it is necessary to focus resources on industries that can create their own advantages, especially deep-processing agriculture. Instead of mainly exporting raw materials and pre-processed products as in previous years, it is necessary to invest heavily in processing to increase added value, and at the same time build a complete ecosystem from raw material areas, cooperatives, purchasing enterprises, logistics to processing and consumption.
Besides exports, developing the domestic market is also very important. When agricultural products are valued right in the domestic market, farmers, businesses and the entire production chain benefit. If done well, Vietnamese businesses can increase exports of deeply processed agricultural products, gradually narrowing the gap with the FDI sector.
In modern products, value is not only in hardware but also in software, data, AI, digital platforms and accompanying services. If Vietnamese businesses deeply participate in these components, the added value created will be much greater than hardware outsourcing. With the advantage from large technology companies such as FPT, Viettel and a large team of information technology engineers, Vietnam has the opportunity to participate more deeply in the global value chain without having to compete directly in industries with economies of scale belonging to other countries.
- Thank you!
