Unexpected forecast about gasoline price tomorrow, January 16

Thạch Lam |

It is forecasted that gasoline prices may continue to increase by 0.5 - 3.2% if the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Surveying world oil prices at 12:27 (Vietnam time), WTI crude oil price is at 76.63 USD/barrel, up 0.26 USD (equivalent to 0.34%). Brent oil price is 80.11 USD/barrel, up 0.19 USD (equivalent to 0.24%).

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, paring losses from the previous day as attention turned again to potential supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian tankers, Reuters reported. Although gains were limited as the market awaited more clarity on the impact of the sanctions. The market found support from a drop in crude inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.

"Oil prices rose sharply in early Asian trade this morning after API data showed US crude inventories fell more than expected last week," ING analysts said.

Domestically, according to the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI), gasoline prices may continue to increase by 0.5 - 3.2% in the operating session tomorrow, January 16, if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 318 VND (1.6%) to 20,748 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 110 VND (0.5%) to 21,120 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that the retail oil price this period will also follow the upward trend, in which mazut may increase sharply by 3.2% to 16,701 VND/kg, followed by diesel which may increase by 2.7% to 19,750 VND/liter, and kerosene which may increase by 2.4% to 19,705 VND/liter.VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time.

A representative of a petroleum business also shared that domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. This person predicted that in the next price adjustment period, petroleum prices may continue to increase. In particular, diesel prices will increase very strongly.

Domestic retail prices of gasoline and oil on January 12, 2025 will be applied according to the price level at the management session on the afternoon of January 9 of the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade.

Accordingly, E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 374 VND/liter, not higher than 20,431 VND/liter. RON 95 gasoline price increased by 273 VND/liter, not higher than 21,019 VND/liter.

Similarly, the prices of various types of oil also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel increased by 488 VND/liter, not higher than 19,243 VND/liter; kerosene increased by 410 VND/liter, to 19,244 VND/liter and fuel oil increased by 83 VND/kg, not higher than 16,182 VND/kg.

Thạch Lam
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Thạch Lam |

According to forecasts, domestic gasoline prices in the next adjustment period may continue to increase, especially diesel prices will increase sharply.

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Thạch Lam |

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