Expected growth of over 8%
At the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, with prospects for 2026, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi - Head of the Central Committee for Policy and Strategy assessed that in 2025, both advantages and disadvantages for the Vietnamese economy will be noted, in which more difficulties than advantages.
The economy is significantly affected by complex geopolitical conflicts in many regions and trade protection policies of countries. In the country, the economy faces many difficulties due to limited capacity and adaptability of enterprises in the value chain; climate change; environmental pollution and extreme weather developments that negatively impact socio-economic development and people's lives" - Mr. Nghi assessed.
In that context, under the leadership of the Party, the support of the National Assembly, the proactive, drastic and effective direction and management of the Government and the Prime Minister, Vietnam has achieved many outstanding and comprehensive achievements in socio-economic development. Economic growth is strongly promoted, expected to reach over 8% in 2025, among the fastest growing economies in the world - Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi informed.
With optimistic data for the first 11 months of 2025, many international organizations have also positively forecast Vietnam's economic growth. For example, HSBC raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report.
Huge need for development investment capital
In the period of 2026-2030, Vietnam aims to strive to achieve an average economic growth rate of 10%/year or more. Mr. Nguyen Duc Hien - Deputy Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Commission said that to achieve this goal, the Vietnamese economy needs a huge amount of development investment capital.
However, according to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hien, the current capital supply structure is showing great risks when bank credit still accounts for 48-50% of total investment capital, bringing the outstanding credit/GDP ratio at risk of skyrocketing to 160-200% if there is no adjustment. To solve this problem, according to Mr. Hien, the strategic solution is to change the thinking of mobilizing financial resources. The focus is no longer on the "room" of bank credit, but on the shift to the long-term capital market.
With the above growth target, Ms. Mariam Sherman - Country Director of the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, recommended that Vietnam continue to strongly promote the private economic sector; focus on people and technology; develop sustainable infrastructure and green growth; ensure fair allocation of growth and institutional modernization achievements.
Vietnam can adapt and diversify growth drivers; deepen regional partnerships, as well as accelerate reforms; enhance competitiveness, adapt to global uncertainties - Ms. Mariam Sherman emphasized.
Assessing the goal of Vietnam setting by 2045 to become a developed country with high income, Ms. Mariam Sherman affirmed that it is very bold, but within reach. Vietnam needs to be optimistic and take urgent action.
To succeed, Vietnam needs to identify clear goals and roadmaps; be consistent in the reform path; despite barriers and be brave and do not avoid challenges and difficulties - the WB representative recommended.
