Domestic coffee prices
On October 2, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased sharply by VND1,800/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to VND117,700/kg.
The increase is steady and very strong:
Dak Nong (old) has the highest price of 117,900 VND/kg (up 1,900 VND/kg).
Dak Lak increased by VND 1,700/kg to VND 117,700/kg.
Lam Dong increased by VND1,800/kg to VND116,500/kg.
Compared to 1 month ago (late August), with this strong price increase, the market has significantly narrowed the gap with the peak in August. Current prices have only decreased net by VND 4,300/kg (from the peak of VND 122,000/kg), showing a great recovery effort.
World coffee prices
International coffee exchanges have witnessed a shocking price increase, especially Robusta.
Robusta price ( London): Exploding. The contract for November/25 increased to 203 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.83%, closing at 4,403 USD/ton.
Arabica prices (New York City): Also increased sharply. The December/25 contract increased by 9.05 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.41%, closing at 383.90 US cents/lb.
Robusta's strong price increase is the main reason driving domestic prices in Vietnam.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Today's trading session is the clearest proof that the fundamental factors supporting prices have completely overwhelmed profit-taking and technical adjustment activities.
Robusta's skyrocketing trend shows that the market is re-evaluating the risks of global Robusta coffee supply. Factors such as record low inventories and pressure from tariff policies are the main drivers.
With this strong increase, the domestic market is likely to soon re-test the psychological threshold of VND 120,000/kg and the peak in mid-September.
The short-term trend forecast is extremely optimistic. The strong bullish consensus of both Robusta and Arabica shows that the recovery will continue to be maintained in the upcoming trading sessions.
