Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday as the market simultaneously absorbed a series of important information from geopolitics to global economic prospects.
Spot gold prices at one point reached 4,828.68 USD/ounce before slightly falling about 3 USD at the end of the session, amid the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its global growth forecast and diplomatic signals between the US and Iran showing the possibility of extending the ceasefire.
The conflict broke out at the end of February after the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran, causing the Hormuz Strait - the transportation route of about 20% of global energy supplies - to be disrupted, pushing oil prices at times above $100/barrel. However, oil prices then retreated to around $95/barrel as negotiation prospects improved.
In the World Economic Outlook report for April 2026, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.4%, while warning that growth could fall to about 2% if energy disruptions persist. This "inflation-suppressing" environment is often seen as a supporting factor for gold prices.
The World Gold Council (WGC) said that although gold price fluctuations at the beginning of 2026 rose to the highest group since 1971, this fluctuation tended to quickly return to the historical average. Market liquidity remained strong, with trading volume in the sell-off at the end of January reaching a record level of 965 billion USD per day.
State Street Group's SPDR strategic group believes that gold is still in the "mid-cycle of price increases", with a price base scenario fluctuating in the range of 4,750–5,500 USD/ounce by the end of the year. If oil prices stabilize around 80–85 USD/barrel, gold may soon return above the 5,000 USD/ounce mark.
Meanwhile, the market is currently almost certain that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the meeting on April 29. Any loosening signals from the Fed or uncertainties related to Chairman Jerome Powell can continue to support gold prices.
In the context of many opposing factors appearing together, gold prices still maintained above the 4,800 USD/ounce mark, reflecting the risk hedging role of the precious metal in the current period of instability.
