Although 2025 is not over yet, global gold investors have a reason to open a holiday season: This precious metal is on track to close out the year with an increase of about 60%, marking the strongest year increase since 1979.
According to Rajat Bhattacharya, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered, this is the second consecutive year that gold has outperformed stocks and bonds, and outperformed bond yields for the 10th consecutive year.
The record rally in gold, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about loose fiscal policy globally, has led the precious metal to increase by more than 50% this year and more than 150% over the past three years, he said. We believe gold will continue to outperform global stocks and bonds in 2026.
Bhattacharya forecasts gold prices to average around $4,500/ounce next year. He said that although gold is in high prices, the current technical adjustment is an opportunity for investors who do not hold much gold to add to their portfolios.
With the same optimism, some other experts predict that gold prices could reach the 5,000 USD/ounce mark in 2026 - equivalent to an increase of about 16%, lower than the 60% momentum this year but still considered positive.
However, Carsten Fritsch - commodity expert at Commerzbank - warned that the current increase is unlikely to last long as gold prices have doubled since February 2024. The German bank expects gold to increase to around $4,400/ounce next year.
From another perspective, Chantelle Schieven - Research Director of Capitalight Research - commented that there is still reason to be optimistic, but it is necessary to look at reality.
Gold has had two very good years, so it is reasonable to ask whether this rally can continue, she said. Gold may be in the price range too high, but that does not mean that the bubble will break next year. We still see a major shift in the global financial system supporting higher gold prices in the long term."
Schieven said that gold is continuously building a price support zone at a higher level: after maintaining above 2,000 USD/ounce throughout 2024, gold prices have created a new support zone at 2,500 USD at the beginning of this year, quickly increasing to 2,800 USD and reaching the 3,000 - 3,500 USD zone in the summer. This price foundation has become a springboard for the historical peak of 4,366 USD/ounce in October 2025.
According to Aakash doshi - Head of Gold Strategy at State Street Investment Management, gold prices may fluctuate between 4,400 - 4,500 USD/ounce next year, but the risk is still leaning towards the possibility of increasing.
With a solid price foundation, golds next 25% rally is likely to remain upward, he said.
Michael Widmer - Head of Metals Research at Bank of America (BofA) - said that gold's rally usually only ends when fundamental factors change, not stopping just because prices are rising. BofA's forecast shows that the average gold price in 2026 will reach 4,538 USD/ounce, possibly reaching 5,000 USD/ounce.
According to BofA, strong central bank demand for gold continues to be a key pillar of the increase. More than 3,000 tons of gold have been added to global official reserves over the past three years. Although the 2025 figures are not yet complete, the World Gold Council estimates that central banks have bought an additional 750 - 900 tons this year.
Schieven said that 2026 could be the year for individual investors, when falling interest rates and high inflation will cause cash flow to leave bonds to find gold.
Real fall in yields makes bonds less attractive, while gold becomes an effective hedge, she said.
