Goldman Sachs said it has seen a significant increase in gold prices to $4,900/ounce by the end of 2026.
Many investors have recently started to return to gold, the banks analysis team said, emphasizing that gold holdings are currently low and the trend of asset diversification is opening up more opportunities.
These comments repeat the previous comments of Mr. Daan Struyven - Head of Petroleum Research at Goldman Sachs. He said that Just a small boost from individual investor cash flow to hedge could create significantly more room for the above forecast.
"We expect the world gold price to increase by nearly 20% by the end of 2026, reaching 4,900 USD/ounce," Mr. Struyven said, emphasizing that gold prices have increased by nearly 60% in 2025 and "the two drivers of the 2025 increase will be repeated in 2026".
The first driver, Struyven said, is the sectoral wave of gold purchases by central banks. After the Russian Central Bank's reserve assets were frozen in 2022, many foreign exchange reserve management agencies in emerging markets have " awakened" and stepped up gold reserves - the only truly safe asset when stored in domestic warehouses.
The second driver is the US Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Gold is not profitable, so when the Fed cuts interest rates, cash flow often flows into the gold ETF market. Goldman experts predict the Fed will cut another 75 basis points, attracting support from both central banks and the private sector.
When asked whether the recent strength of the US dollar will affect gold prices especially as the use of the greenback was once part of the investment case, Mr. Struyven said that a more reasonable scenario is the expansion of the diversification trend, which is currently only concentrated in the central banking group. If private investors participate more strongly, gold prices can far exceed the already optimistic forecast.
Mr. Struyven emphasized that the reason why private capital flows can create a strong effect is the relatively small size of the gold market. Global gold ETFs are about 70 times smaller than the US Treasury market. Therefore, just a small part of the capital flow withdrawn from the bond market to move to gold is enough to push prices up significantly.
This is also the reason why gold is currently at the top of Goldman Sachs' long-term buying recommendation portfolio. According to Mr. Struyven, "gold has room to increase not only in the base scenario, but in less positive market situations - such as concerns about the US budget or the independence of the Fed - gold shines even brighter".
Goldman also predicts central banks will buy about 80 tonnes of gold in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026, with emerging markets continuing to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 153.6 - 155.6 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 151.8 - 154.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
