In the last week of November, the stock market rebounded from the 1,640-1,660-point range after a week of sideways and advanced to the resistance zone of 1,700 points. However, liquidity for the whole week has not improved compared to previous weeks, along with quiet trading in the market showing the caution of cash flow. The average weekly matched trading value on HoSE reached VND18,627 billion, 13% lower than the 20-session average.
In the context of the market approaching the old peak with declining liquidity, many investors are wondering about the "urging" risks as well as which investment strategy is most suitable.
According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Head of Investment Analysis and Consulting Department of Agriseco Securities Company (CTCK), in the current period, there are some potential risks of the stock market that investors need to pay attention to.
Firstly, the exchange rate pressure is still present, affecting foreign cash flow and investor sentiment.
The second potential risk of the market related to the mobilization interest rates of some banks has begun to increase. The increase is not much but has also reflected the trend of interest rate increases at banks in the coming time. One of the reasons for the interest rate increase comes from the need for banks to boost mobilization growth in the context of credit growth continuing to be at the current high level.
Experts recommend that when the market is approaching the psychological resistance zone of 1,700 points but liquidity has not recorded a corresponding improvement, the use of leverage should be considered to avoid increasing risks in the scenario where the index has an unexpected correction.
Investors should keep the margin ratio low to medium, prioritizing positions that are in a clear uptrend and have a strong enough accumulated price base before. Using too much leverage in the context of weak liquidity and the possibility of strong market fluctuations will make it more difficult for investors to manage short-term risks.
Assessing the factors dominating the market in December, Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of Analysis, Smart Invest Joint Stock Company, said that the first is the monetary policy and interest rates at the end of the year.
Currently, deposit interest rates and yields of government and interbank bonds tend to increase, causing investors to be worried because they are impressed by the market's recent declines when interest rates increase.
The important thing is perhaps to distinguish between the current period of interest rate increases as a local reaction to demand or a policy reversal by the State Bank.
Second is the disbursement of public investment and the progress of large projects. Third is the business results of the fourth quarter and profit guidance for 2026. Retail, real estate, export, banking and consumer groups often have good profit scores in the last quarter of the year.
Fourth is foreign exchange and ETFs. Foreign capital continues to depend on the USD trend and cash flow into the frontier market. If the exchange rate cools down, foreign investors can return to net buying.
Fifth, the Fed can reduce interest rates thereby supporting international capital flows to return to emerging and frontier markets.
Assessing the market in general, Dragon Capital stated that Vietnam's securities are being supported by important pillars to continue towards a positive growth story in 2025 and 2026.
The picture of better-than-expected business profits. The latest statistics show that in the first 9 months of this year, the profits of 80 companies monitored by Dragon Capital had a growth rate of 22.4%, exceeding the forecast at the beginning of the year. The whole year of 2025 is estimated to reach 21.3% and 2026 will continue to remain at 16.2%.
The market valuation is attractive with the expected P/E (priced-profit coefficient) for 2025 being only about 12.5-13 times and 11 times for 2026. Vietnam's valuation is still lower than that of other markets in the region, despite impressive profit growth.
"With the upgrade from a frontier market to an emerging market, the valuation of the Vietnamese market will have the opportunity to re-evaluate higher, due to large capital inflows from international funds," Dragon Capital emphasized.
