That is the assessment of Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) in an interview with Lao Dong Newspaper about the scenario and growth momentum in the last 3 quarters of 2026.
With the GDP growth rate in the first quarter reaching 7.83%, how will the growth scenario in the second quarter and the last two quarters of the year change to ensure the target for the whole year 2026, Madam?
- To compensate for the shortfall of the first quarter and towards the goal of growth for the whole year according to Resolution 01, the economy must make great efforts in the following quarters with quarters with growth above 10.5%. Accordingly, the scenario for the last 3 quarters of the year is as follows: Quarter II: GDP is estimated to reach 10.5%; quarter III: GDP is estimated to reach 10.6%; quarter IV: GDP is estimated to reach 10.74%.
This scenario is expected to be based on the acceleration of exports, the strong recovery of domestic purchasing power, along with the increasingly clear contribution of new economic sectors such as semiconductor technology and green economy. At the same time, it is necessary to thoroughly remove legal barriers, accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital and effectively unlock private investment capital flows. Middle East conflict must end soon and oil price stabilization is also a necessary condition to ensure that economic growth can approach the set target.
So what is the main driving force we need to promote to achieve the growth target, Madam?
- Public investment continues to be the driving force for long-term production capacity. Public investment in 2026 focuses on super infrastructure projects (Long Thanh airport, high-speed railway, ring road cluster, expressway, Olympic sports urban area...) creating a strong spillover effect. This is not just government spending but a process of accumulating production for the economy, helping to reduce logistics costs, stimulate FDI and private investment flows into satellite areas around new infrastructure.
Domestic consumption is forecast to improve thanks to salary reform policies and domestic consumption stimulus policies of provinces and cities across the country. The purchasing power of the market of more than 100 million people being strongly activated will create momentum for the development of services, accommodation, food and e-commerce industries, ensuring that the domestic economic vortex does not stagnate when exports encounter difficulties.
Flexible fiscal policy in parallel with monetary policy will be an effective risk management tool. Proactively using gasoline and oil tax tools and the Price Stabilization Fund is a "safe valve" to prevent inflation and cost push. By curbing the increase in energy prices, the Government directly supports profit margins for transportation and manufacturing enterprises, preventing chain reactions on the living price level, thereby protecting people's purchasing power and macroeconomic stability.
The driving force of digital technology and AI is to improve internal capacity. In the context of volatile input material prices, technology helps manufacturing enterprises shift from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, directly improving the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) index and creating new growth space from digital business models.
The room in export industries will be expanded if the advantages from FTAs are maximized. Taking advantage of FTAs and the wave of supply chain shifts, key industries such as electronics, components and green textiles and garments will play a "pivot" role in foreign currency, helping to stabilize the balance of payments and promote industrial production to maintain stable growth momentum.
Thank you for sharing!
