Purchasing power recovers in domestic markets, businesses proactively accelerate
According to the IMF report, the GDP of most of Vietnam's trading partners is forecast to grow at a higher rate than last year. In particular, the GDP growth of the US - Vietnam's largest export market - is expected to reach 2.6%, while China's GDP is forecast to increase by 5%. The EU region is also forecast to increase by 0.9%.
Yuanta Securities said that consumer confidence in major markets such as the US, China, EU and UK is showing clear signs of recovery, reinforcing expectations of increased purchasing power in the coming time.
In the US, consumer confidence is rising thanks to stable retail sales and increased new orders, reflecting optimism about economic growth.
Similarly, in China, the government's economic support policies are also promoting the recovery of domestic consumption. Meanwhile, although the recovery rate in the EU and UK is slower, consumer confidence is also showing a positive trend. Countries such as the US, EU, and China have also moved to reduce interest rates to support the economy. With these factors, the analysis team expects purchasing power to continue to increase, positively supporting Vietnam's exports in the coming time.
In the first 8 months of 2024, the total import-export turnover reached 511.11 billion USD (up 17.1% over the same period), with a trade surplus of 19.07 billion USD (down 4.1% over the same period last year).
Statistics show that, in addition to expanding new customers in Asia (Japan, Korea, India), European and American markets are also starting to show positive signs.
New orders continued to grow strongly for the fifth consecutive month, with the pace remaining brisk, although slower than the record in July, Yuanta's analysis team said.
Many factors support import and export acceleration
The Fed's official interest rate cut and the possibility of further rate cuts later this year have boosted economic recovery.
According to experts, this is also the driving force for Vietnam's exports to recover and accelerate in the last months of 2024 and into 2025.
In addition, the advantage of the VND/USD exchange rate gradually cooling down, so the impact on exports is insignificant. However, export sectors such as rubber, seafood, textiles, and wooden furniture still need more supporting factors. Vietnam's rubber exports continue to depend largely on China's tire production needs.
"In our opinion, domestic rubber enterprises will benefit from the increase in prices on the world market," said Yuanta's analysis team. In the textile industry, the political tension in Bangladesh is showing signs of easing. Vietnam is expected to benefit from this.
To promote production and business activities as well as export to achieve the target set at the beginning of the year, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh said, we need to effectively take advantage of opportunities from trade agreements (FTAs); prioritize updating and grasping information about foreign markets; conditions, requirements, changes in export markets for imported goods... from there, combine with industry associations, export production enterprises to get orders not only in the first quarter of 2025 but for the whole year.
