Sir, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is estimated at about 8.22%. How do you evaluate this result - is this a sign that the economy is entering a stronger growth period?
- The growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 8.22% with the added value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector about 3.74%, the industrial and construction sector about 9.46%, and the service sector about 8.56%. GDP growth in the first 9 months is estimated at 7.84% over the same period, closely following the whole year's growth scenario of 8% when synchronously implementing the set solutions. This result is completely in the previous forecast because normally, the last two quarters of the year will have an increase of about 1.5-2% compared to the first quarters of the year. Therefore, the growth rate in the third quarter of 8.22% is reasonable, accurately reflecting the actual situation of our country.
The results published by the Statistics Office have shown that the ability of the economy to mobilize resources is going in the right direction. The highlight is the " Sharp growth drivers" such as exports, investment (both domestic and foreign), innovation, startups, and agricultural - industrial - tourism sectors all have seen clear improvement. It can be said that this is a comprehensive " start-up", creating a positive spillover effect that we had never imagined at the beginning of the year.
Many opinions say that 2025 is the year of " institutional breakthrough". What is your assessment of the role of Resolutions 57, 59, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72 in removing barriers and creating new momentum for the economy in the past and in the future?
- In recent times, the Government's management policies have been very consistent with reality, exploiting domestic potential well. In particular, reforming administrative procedures, promoting digital transformation, and empowering localities is creating growth momentum. It can be said that we are entering a new growth cycle, with the possibility of maintaining a high speed in the next 5-6 years. According to preliminary estimates, the period of 2025 - 2031 may maintain double-digit growth, creating a foundation for Vietnam's economy to break out.
A series of important Resolutions issued and vigorously implemented by the Politburo in key areas (Resolutions 57, 59, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72) are very strong institutional motivations. The Resolution on innovation and digital transformation helps Vietnam keep up with the global development trend, towards a growth model based on knowledge and technology. Resolution 68 on private economic development has unlocked the development potential of this region. Resolution 66 on legal reform creates a new thinking: The law must be concise and convenient for people and businesses. We are gradually shifting from the mindset of "if you can't manage it, then ban it" to "to be allowed to do things that the law does not prohibit". Resolution 59 on international integration helps Vietnam integrate more deeply with the global market, expand development space...
From the expert's perspective, how do you predict GDP growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025?
- Vietnam's current growth model is not only based on exports or public investment as before, but has begun to form new drivers from institutional reform, digital transformation, and private economic development.Thanks to that, the processing - manufacturing industries, high-tech agriculture, tourism and logistics services all have steady growth, creating a solid foundation for the year-end breakthrough.I predict that with a positive scenario, GDP could reach 8.2-8.5% this year, with the fourth quarter of 2025 possibly reaching more than 9%.
In your opinion, what drivers will continue to lead growth momentum in the last quarter of 2025?
- The main growth drivers are still the combination of tradition and new drivers, including four important pillars.
First, import-export and foreign investment - continue to be the main attraction.
Second, a series of national key projects - the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh Airport, urban belt routes - are being accelerated in disbursement progress. Public investment is considered a lever to stimulate growth, spreading to the materials, construction and service sectors.
Third, private investment - exploded thanks to institutional dismantling and expanding rights for businesses, increasing rights for localities. Fourth is domestic consumption. The fourth quarter is always the peak spending season, associated with festivals such as Christmas and Tet... When income improves, income tax decreases, people spend more, creating a strong boost for domestic demand. All of these driving forces are "acelerating" together, creating a Vietnamese economic vehicle with great horsepower, strongly breaking through at the end of the year.
