The Government sets a growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 and a double-digit growth rate of over 10% in the 2026-2030 period. Based on the data, the Central Committee for Policy and Strategy forecasts a grassroots growth scenario with positive conditions of about 8.1% and a high scenario of 9%.
According to Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien - Deputy Head of the Central - Vietnam Policy and Strategy Department, there are positive advantages, welcoming the shift in investment capital flows, strongly developing digital technologies, promoting the development of green industry, new energy, and renewable energy. Vietnam also has the opportunity to participate deeply in the regional and global supply chains.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien believes that Vietnam's economic growth model is generally still traditional and is subject to high risks from tariff barriers of other countries. Along with that is the risk of "being left behind" if the process of catching the rhythm and catching the technology is not successful. Mr. Hien also pointed out the impacts on production and economic growth related to the US counterpart tax policy and the risks of becoming a means of production and technology...
"To achieve two major goals: becoming a high-income developed country by 2045 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050, it is necessary to increase internal resources, renew traditional growth drivers, develop new economic models, and enhance position in the global supply chain" - Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien emphasized.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien pointed out new economic models, new economic sectors such as: digital economy, data economy, sustainable green, new economic sectors such as low-level economy, peripheral economy, space economy, circular economy.
Regarding the digital economy, according to assessments from international and domestic research, this is an industry with the prospect of contributing to Vietnam's breakthrough growth, forecast to bring from 90-200 billion USD by 2030. In particular, the successful application of AI technology can contribute 120-130 billion USD to GDP...
However, according to statistics from the Ministry of Science and Technology, in 2024, the digital economy will contribute 18.3% of GDP, but the core economy, information technology industry, and digital technology will contribute a large part of the value, accounting for 62%.
The digital economy is expected to continue to be the main growth driver, gradually replacing the growth model based on investment capital and resources. The goal of the digital economy contributing 30% of GDP by 2030 is a big challenge.
For the new driving force of the green economy, green investment from the private sector tends to increase, reaching about 161 million USD in 2024, accounting for about 2% of total investment. Vietnam has had certain successes in piloting the sale of carbon credits.
Vietnam is also a country with great potential for renewable energy development, especially offshore wind power and solar energy. In addition, Vietnam's energy transition index in 2024 is ranked 32nd out of 120 countries, showing significant progress in the green transition process.
