Challenging growth goals
Speaking at the "2024 National Scientific Conference on Vietnam's Economy and prospects for 2025" - Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong - Director of the National Economics University assessed - in 2024, the world economy will face many challenges: tightening monetary policy and persistent public debt in many developing countries.
Geopolitical instability continues in some regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine, changes in the government apparatus in many countries around the world, including the US.
However, the cooling of inflation in most major countries has created conditions for many central banks in the world to gradually loosen monetary policy to support growth.
According to Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, 2024 can be considered a vibrant year with many strong changes. The real economic sector showed many signs of recovery, the GDP growth rate for the whole year was 7.09%, exceeding the target of 6 - 6.5% set by the Government, significantly higher than other countries in the region.
Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong assessed that in the foreign sector, Vietnam will continue to integrate more deeply into the world economy with a total import-export turnover of goods estimated at 786.29 billion USD, equivalent to about 165% of GDP.
In particular, the FDI sector continues to overwhelm the domestic sector with 71.7% of total export turnover and 63.2% of total import turnover, the added value of the FDI sector contributing to the economy is still not commensurate. Many domestic enterprises are still facing difficulties and have not created connections with the FDI sector, thereby participating more deeply in the global production network.
Growth at 8% in 2025 and higher in the following years is a challenging target. To be able to maintain sustainable growth in the long term, in addition to promoting traditional growth drivers, building a suitable economic and political institutional system is extremely important.
The inclusive institutional system is an important foundation for a complete market economy and helps encourage the participation of the majority of people in economic activities. On the other hand, the institutional system also needs to ensure a fair distribution of economic results, helping these inclusive institutions maintain and expand - Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong assessed.
High growth associated with macroeconomic stability
Giving recommendations for sustainable economic growth in the coming time, Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh - National Economics University in the coming time believes that Vietnam must be associated with macroeconomic stability. In particular, it is necessary to be careful in using monetary policy and strengthening healthy financial policies. For the expanded fiscal policy, focus on increasing the efficiency of public investment disbursement, selective tax reduction and strengthening social security policies.
Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh said that Vietnam needs to focus on internal resources, creating an environment for the private economic sector to develop as the most important driving force of the economy. Restructuring the production chain towards increasing added value, attracting high-quality FDI, the domestic sector participates deeply in the global chain. Taking advantage of FTAs to diversify export markets. Promote science and technology, innovation and digital transformation; develop the digital economy, data economy; focus on strategic industries.
"In particular, it is necessary to continue to improve the law in the direction of minimizing administrative interventions, enhancing enforcement efficiency, and ensuring equality and transparency. It is necessary to reform the thinking in law-making in the direction of both ensuring effective State management and promoting creativity, abandoning the thinking of "if you can't control it, then ban it" - Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh emphasized.
