Inflation under control
According to information from the Directorate of Statistics, the average CPI in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 3.48% compared to the third quarter of 2023. In the first 9 months of this year, the CPI increased by 3.88% compared to the same period last year; core inflation increased by 2.69%. The average inflation rate in the first 9 months of this year shows that the inflation rate for the whole year will likely reach the target set by the National Assembly.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh - Director of the Price Statistics Department, there are two main reasons that helped Vietnam successfully control inflation in the first 9 months of 2024. Firstly, the cooling of world inflation has affected Vietnam's inflation. Accordingly, the inflation rate of the Eurozone in September 2024 increased by only 1.8%, the lowest in three and a half years and below the ECB's target of 2%.
The cooling of world inflation has helped Vietnam reduce pressure from imported inflation, the average import price index of goods in the first 9 months of the year decreased by 1.73% compared to the same period last year.
In particular, petroleum products are one of the items that account for a large proportion in the basket of goods used to calculate Vietnam's CPI, while the price of this item depends mainly on world prices. Therefore, the decrease in world oil prices caused the domestic petroleum price index in the third quarter of 2024 to decrease by 7.72% compared to the same period last year, affecting the overall CPI to decrease by 0.28 percentage points.
Second, to control inflation according to the target set by the National Assembly, the Government has directed ministries, branches and localities to resolutely implement many solutions. Ensure smooth supply, circulation and distribution of goods, especially essential goods for people's lives. Focus on strengthening price management and operation during natural disasters and floods, promptly issuing national reserve goods to support and provide relief to people affected by storms and floods.
In addition, the Government continues to implement support policies on taxes, fees and charges to support people and businesses. Monetary policy is actively, flexibly, promptly and effectively managed, also contributing to controlling inflation.
Watch carefully in the last months of the year
Speaking to the press, Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh - Director of the Price Statistics Department said that in the last months of this year, it is necessary to carefully monitor to control inflation. For example, risks of natural disasters and adverse weather can impact the increase in food and food prices in some localities. At the same time, according to the law, in the last months of the year and on holidays and Tet, prices of food, food, beverages, clothing, equipment and household appliances often increase, which will also impact the increase in CPI.
The forecast of a sharp increase in electricity demand for production and consumption in the coming time also puts pressure on inflation. Adjusting the price of state-managed services in the direction of correctly and fully calculating all factors, costs need to be carefully considered, appropriate in terms of level and timing of price increases.
According to the Director of the Price Statistics Department, the world's input material prices are at a high level while the world's economic and political situation is becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable. Vietnam is a country that imports a lot of raw materials for production, so fluctuations in world commodity prices will affect costs and prices, creating pressure on business production and thereby pushing up domestic consumer goods prices. In addition, the high price of the US dollar increases the cost of importing raw materials and fuel, putting pressure on domestic commodity prices.
"Stimulus packages, lowering lending interest rates, expanding credit, and boosting public investment help to ease economic difficulties, but can also put pressure on price levels if money supply is not properly controlled," Ms. Oanh added.
