The VN-Index last week fluctuated between 1,250 and 1,260 points, with slightly reduced liquidity, showing that bottom-fishing demand appeared when the index adjusted to the support zone around 1,250 points, while selling pressure was exhausted.
Banking stocks continue to be an important pillar, supported by positive Q3/2024 business results and expectations of capital increase of state-owned banks. In addition, some capitalization stocks have just recovered from low price levels, contributing to maintaining a slight increase.
Foreign investors continued to net sell last week, totaling about VND7,600 billion. Foreign capital still seems to be uninterested in the current price range, partly because the stock price does not have an attractive discount, especially because the exchange rate is still unknown, although it has cooled down a bit compared to the previous week.
It can be seen that, compared to the previous week of continuous decline, the trading week from October 28 to November 1, 2024 was somewhat calmer for investors when the general index stopped falling and had a few recovery sessions. However, that was not enough to immediately start a new uptrend.
The lack of improvement in cash flow is one reason why the VN-Index has not been able to recover strongly, with an average of only about 450 million shares traded per session, 15-20% lower than the previous week. To create a new trend, the market needs to have stronger shake-off sessions before going up.
In the context of the market lacking supportive information and new variables about the upcoming US presidential election, the market is likely to continue its tug-of-war trend in the coming trading week.
In the past, the US presidential election often caused strong fluctuations in the global stock market and also had an indirect impact on the domestic market. We also need to monitor those fluctuations to make appropriate decisions. However, it usually only affects a few sessions, not a factor that can change the trend.
Many experts believe that after a sharp decline last week, the recovery last week has come, but it lacks conviction, so at the moment, the market index is at a rather fragile level.
According to analysts at SBS Securities Company, in the short term, if the VN-Index remains stable above 1,250 points, the accumulation trend within the 1,250-1,300 range will still prevail. On the contrary, if the 1,250 point mark is lost and liquidity increases below this threshold, the market situation will change quite negatively and investors need to quickly reduce the proportion to a safe threshold.
Analysts from DSC Securities Company said that the stock market will have a shake-up this week, VN-Index will retest the support zone around 1,240 points with a liquidity explosion at the beginning of the week, then gradually recover and bottom out at the end of the week. Leading industries will likely gradually emerge, the most potential being real estate and steel as these are the groups that have fallen before the market and are maintaining a good price base, despite the strong correction of the general market at the end of last week.
