UOB Bank (Singapore) has just announced its forecast for Vietnam's economic prospects in the first quarter of 2026. Accordingly, UOB forecasts that Vietnam's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 will reach the highest level since the post- Covid-19 recovery period in the second quarter of 2022, with actual GDP reaching a growth rate of 8.23% over the same period, continuing the increase of 8.19% in the second quarter of 2025.
According to UOB experts, the main driving force continues to come from stable export and production activities, despite challenges from US tariffs.
In the period from January to February 2025, Vietnam's exports increased sharply by 16.1% over the same period, although the comparison level last year was high (14.4%).
An important driver is that export turnover to the US reached 121.6 billion USD, up 27.5% over the same period last year, due to orders being accelerated after the US adjusted the counterpart tax rate to a basic 10% globally. In the first 11 months of 2025, the trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 20.53 billion USD (the same period last year had a trade surplus of 24.38 billion USD).
In the first 11 months of 2025, the Vietnamese manufacturing industry will grow positively, the index of the entire industrial production sector (IIP) is estimated to increase by 9.3% over the same period, led by the processing and manufacturing industry, with key products such as automobiles, television, and steel increasing sharply, creating great momentum for the economy, despite the impact of the weather. With the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remaining above the threshold of 50 for 4 consecutive months, the manufacturing industry outlook continues to be positively assessed.
According to UOB's report, despite fluctuations in US trade and tariff policies since the beginning of 2025, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam still maintains its appeal, thanks to investors' confidence in the prospects of the country and the ASEAN region.
In the context of continued supply chain restructuring, the accumulated FDI disbursed capital by October reached 23.6 billion USD, exceeding the whole year's forecast by 20 billion USD and increasing by 8.9% over the same period. Registered capital continued to flourish, up 7.4% over the same period last year, reaching 33.69 billion USD.
Domestic consumer sentiment is also positive, in the first 11 months of 2025, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.1% over the same period last year and higher than the increase of 8.9% in the same period in 2024. The growth momentum comes from the increase in international visitors. The number of international visitors in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 20.9% compared to the same period in 2024 and officially exceeded the 18 million arrival of 2019 - the time before the Covid-19 pandemic.
"We forecast growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 to slow down to 7.2%, bringing the whole year's growth to 7.7%. Achieving the target of 8.38.5% according to the official forecast will be quite challenging, because this requires growth in the fourth quarter to reach 9.710.5%" - UOB's report stated.
Entering 2026, UOB forecasts that Vietnam's growth may decrease slightly to about 7% due to the high comparison basis in 2025 and the decline in taking advantage of the acceleration of previous export orders.
