According to preliminary data from the Customs Department, the total import and export turnover of Vietnam in the first half of May 5.2025 (from 1.5 to 15.5) reached US $ 36.09 billion, down 6.8% (equivalent to 2.64 billion USD) compared to the second half of April. However, from the beginning of the year to May 15, this figure reached US $ 313.26 billion, up 15.3% (equivalent to 41.53 billion USD) compared to the same period in 2024. These figures show that Vietnam's economy still maintains endurance, despite the short -term fluctuations in the challenging global trade context.
Short-term fluctuations, long-term prospects
Export turnover in the first period of May 2025 reached 16.88 billion USD, down sharply by 18.3% (equivalent to 3.77 billion USD) compared to the previous period. Key product groups such as machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts decreased by 19.7% (513 million USD), textiles decreased by 22.8% (401 million USD), computers, electronic products and components decreased by 8.9% (394 million USD). The decline could be due to the production cycle after the holidays or temporary decline in demand from major markets such as the US and EU.
However, from the beginning of the year to May 15, exports reached 157.5 billion USD, up 13.3% over the same period in 2024. The main driving force came from high-tech products such as computers, electronic products and components (up 38.3%, equivalent to 9.22 billion USD), machinery, equipment (up 16.1%, equivalent to 2.66 billion USD) and coffee (up 56.6%, equivalent to 1.52 billion USD).
Imports in the first period of May 2025 reached 19.21 billion USD, up 6.2% (equivalent to 1.13 billion USD) compared to the previous period. The groups of goods that increased sharply included computers, electronic products and components (up 16.7%, equivalent to 933 million USD), fabrics of all kinds (up 12.5%, equivalent to 84 million USD) and machinery and equipment (up 3.2%, equivalent to 80 million USD). Since the beginning of the year, imports have reached 155.76 billion USD, up 17.4% over the same period in 2024, with electronics and machinery leading. The increase in imports reflects strong investment demand in manufacturing, strengthening Vietnam's role as a regional manufacturing center, attracting large corporations such as Samsung and Foxconn.
Due to decreased exports and increased imports, the trade balance in the first quarter of May 2025 had a deficit of 2.32 billion USD. However, since the beginning of the year, Vietnam has maintained a trade surplus of 1.74 billion USD, showing a sustainable competitive advantage. The short-term deficit may be due to the import of raw materials for production, but it needs to be monitored to ensure long-term balance.
FDI enterprises and trade prospects
Foreign-invested enterprises (FDI) continue to be the pillar. In the first period of May 2025, exports of this group reached 13.24 billion USD, accounting for 71.3% of total exports, although down 5.7% compared to the previous period. Imports reached 13.9 billion USD, up 25.8%, accounting for nearly 64% of total imports. Since the beginning of the year, exports and imports of FDI enterprises have increased by 13.1% and 18.4% respectively over the same period in 2024. The contribution of FDI brings great benefits, but also poses challenges in autonomy for domestic enterprises
In 2025, the global economy is forecast to grow modestly, about 2.8 - 3.2%, reducing demand from major markets. The US tariff pressure, even if temporarily postponed, is still a risk. However, the VND/USD exchange rate increased slightly (about 25,975 VND/USD) helping Vietnamese goods compete more. Free trade agreements such as CPTPP, EVFTA and RCEP continue to open up market opportunities.
To maintain growth momentum, Vietnam needs to diversify export markets and reduce dependence on imported raw materials. Investing in domestic enterprises, from finance to technology, is the key to balancing with FDI. Despite short-term fluctuations, Vietnam's import and export in the first 5 months of 2025 showed resilience and potential. With a suitable strategy, Vietnam can continue to affirm its position in global trade.
Connecting domestic enterprises with FDI
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (University of Economics, VNU-Grain) - commented that the FDI sector plays a key role in Vietnam's exports, promoting integration into the global value chain. However, domestic enterprises have not been able to make much use of FDI technology transfer, mainly participating in low- and medium-tech industries or services, and have not reached the stages with high added value.
To exploit opportunities from the trend of global supply chain shift, Dr. Viet proposed building a synchronous policy, supporting domestic enterprises to effectively connect with FDI. There should be preferential mechanisms on finance, interest rates and creating conditions for access to resources for domestic enterprises to upgrade technology and improve competitiveness. Vietnamese enterprises need to proactively innovate technology, improve the quality of human resources and optimize governance to meet the requirements of participating in the international supply chain.
On the State side, Dr. Viet emphasized the need to review and adjust the FDI attraction strategy based on industry and regional planning, prioritize strategic investors with high technology, and encourage technology transfer to domestic enterprises. These solutions will help Vietnam participate more deeply in the global production chain, reduce risks and increase long-term economic value.
