According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 7:00 a.m. on October 21, the center of the storm was at about 18 degrees north latitude - 112.6 degrees east longitude, about 130 km north of Hoang Sa Special Zone. The strongest wind near the storm center is level 9-10 (75-102 km/h), gusting to level 12. The storm is moving westward at a speed of about 20 km/h.
Storm No. 12 gradually moves southwest and weakens before entering the Central region
It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the storm will move west-southwest at a speed of 10-15 km/h.
According to Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology, from October 22 onwards, when approaching the northwestern sea of Hoang Sa special zone, the storm will begin to gradually turn southwest, slow down, and gradually weaken before moving inland.
"Thus, it can be seen that storm No. 12 is moving along a curved trajectory, initially in the west-northwest - west direction, then gradually moving southwest when approaching the Central region" - Mr. Lam analyzed.
At 7:00 a.m. on October 22, the center of the storm was at about 16.8 degrees north latitude - 110.2 degrees east longitude, in the sea west of Hoang Sa special zone, about 220 km east-northeast of Da Nang city. Strong wind level 9, gust level 11.
The dangerous area in the East Sea is from 15.5-20,0 degrees north latitude - 108.5-114.5 degrees east longitude. The natural disaster risk level is level 3 for the western sea area of the northern East Sea (including the Hoang Sa special zone).
It is forecasted that in the next 48 hours, the storm will move southwest at a speed of about 10 km/h.
"Storm No. 12 will make landfall in the area from Da Nang to Quang Ngai around October 23 and gradually weaken into a tropical depression, then a low pressure area" - Mr. Lam said.
At 7:00 a.m. on October 23, the center of the low pressure area was at about 15.6 degrees north latitude - 107.9 degrees east longitude, in the mainland area from Da Nang city to Quang Ngai. Wind speed decreases below level 6.
The danger zone is from 14.5-19 degrees north latitude - 107.5-112.0 degrees east longitude. The natural disaster risk level is level 3 for the western sea area of the northern East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone) and the sea area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Ly Son special zone).
It is forecasted that in the next 72 hours, the low pressure area will move southwest at a speed of about 10 km/h, moving deep into the southern Laos area and gradually weakening. At 7:00 a.m. on October 24, the center of the low pressure area was at about 15 degrees north latitude - 106.5 degrees east longitude.
Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai rain may last until early November
According to the representative of the meteorological agency, regarding the impact at sea, the northern East Sea area (including Hoang Sa special zone) has strong winds of level 7-8, the area near the storm's eye has strong winds of level 9-10, gusts of level 12; waves 3-5 m high, the area near the storm's eye is 5-7 m high, the sea is very rough.
The sea area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Ly Son special area) will have strong winds of level 6, from the morning of October 22 it will increase to level 7, the area near the storm's eye will have strong winds of level 8, gusts of level 10; waves 3-5 m high, rough seas. All ships operating in the above dangerous areas are likely to be affected by thunderstorms, whirlwinds, strong winds and large waves.
Mr. Lam said that the storm circulation combined with cold air is not likely to cause strong winds on land, but the rain situation will be very complicated.
"On October 23, when the storm center approaches the shore, it will be the time of heaviest rain on land when there is a combination of storm, cold air, easterly wind disturbances and the terrain of the Central region. This is also a combination of conditions that has caused particularly heavy rain in the Central region in recent years" - Mr. Lam analyzed.
A representative of the meteorological agency said that heavy rain due to the above conditions will occur in the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai.
From the night of October 22 to October 27, the total rainfall in Ha Tinh to northern Quang Tri and Quang Ngai will be about 200 - 400 mm, locally over 500 mm. From southern Quang Tri to Da Nang city, the total rainfall will be 500-700 mm, locally over 900 mm. Warning of heavy rain with rainfall greater than 200 mm/3 hours.
There is a high risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas, flooding in low-lying areas and urban areas. Localities need to pay attention to safe operation of hydroelectric reservoirs and irrigation before, during and after the storm; prepare response plans for flood scenarios on rivers from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai that may reach alert level 3 and exceed alert level 3. Forecast of natural disaster risk level due to floods: level 3.
"The rain in the Central region may last until the end of October, even to early November. We would like to emphasize that this is only the first rain in the peak of the rainy season in the Central region this year. In November, there are forecasts of other heavy rains," said Mr. Lam.
