Latest update from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the low pressure trough has an axis at about 15 - 18 degrees north latitude connecting with a low pressure area in the North East Sea. Location of the low pressure area at 7:00 p.m. on June 9 was about 16.7 - 17.7 degrees north latitude; 114.7 - 115.7 degrees east longitude.
The forecast information about the risk of strengthening of this low pressure area is of interest to the people. The reporter had an interview with Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting about the latest forecasts.
Sir, what is the forecast for the path of this low pressure area after it strengthens into a tropical depression and then becomes a storm?
- In the next 24 hours, the low pressure area will move slowly to the west and is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression.
We predict that this will most likely be the first storm in 2025 not only in the East Sea but also in the entire Northwest Pacific region.
With the current forecast, most models predict that this storm will enter the Hoang Sa archipelago of Vietnam after forming, then likely turn north, to the Quangdong province of China.
However, there are still some other options with low probability. For example, this storm may deviate more westward, move towards Hainan Island (China) and may enter the Gulf of Tonkin.
Currently, the low pressure area is still in the formation stage and has not developed into a tropical depression or storm, so many factors can change.
We need to monitor and update in the next 1-2 days to accurately assess the possibility and extent of the impact of this storm on coastal areas as well as the possibility of affecting the mainland or not.
So what are the current developments that need attention on marine weather, sir?
- In the immediate future, we want to emphasize the existing risks in the next 24 - 48 hours. That is the impact of strong winds on vessel activities in the central and northern East Sea.
There is a high risk of thunderstorms in the circulation of the low pressure area followed by tropical depressions and storms.
The circulation of this tropical depression and may then become a storm is forecast to be very large, covering all sea areas.
The southwest monsoon is also quite active. This is a relatively large source of moisture that can trigger a sudden storm intensification in the coming time. We are paying close attention and discussing with forecasters in the regions about the possibility of increasing storm intensity. We will keep updating.
So if the southwest monsoon affects, it will increase the intensity of the storm. What is the forecast for the strongest intensity of storm No. 1 if it forms, sir?
- According to current models and options, the strongest intensity of this storm is forecast to reach level 10, level 11 if it forms.
However, I would like to emphasize that it has not yet formed and that the change in intensity and trajectory may be very different. After the next 1-2 days when the low pressure area strengthens into a tropical depression and storm, this will continue to be updated.
Sincerely thank you!
