The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from June to August 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change on the most notable weather features in the above period.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien, can you tell us the highlights in the 2025 summer climate picture according to current analysis and forecasts?
- We have made some key comments for this summer. First of all, ENSO is in a neutral state and is forecast to maintain this state throughout the three months of summer. The probability is about 70 - 75%.
The summer monsoon - a factor that greatly affects the summer weather - is forecast to be approximately the average intensity of many years. The end of the summer monsoon will also be equivalent to the average of many years (ie late September or early October).
What is the forecast for temperature and rainfall trends this summer, sir?
- With the temperature background, we predict that in the 3 peak months of the summer, the average temperature in most areas across the country will be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
From June to August, hot weather will occur widely, especially in the North and Central regions. However, the intensity of this year's heat is considered less severe than in 2024. Previously, the summer of 2024 recorded many extreme heat waves.
Regarding rainfall, the total rainfall for the three months from June to August is forecast to be approximately the average of many years in almost all areas across the country.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien, how are the forecasts for extreme weather phenomena, especially storms and tropical depressions in the next 3 months and throughout the storm season?
- This is a factor of concern, especially when the storm season has begun. The forecast shows that in the 3 months from June to August, the number of tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam will be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Specifically, there are about 5 activities in the East Sea on average every year and 2-3 of them directly affecting the mainland of Vietnam.
In terms of the entire storm season, the forecast for the number of storms and tropical depressions active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2025 is likely to be approximately equal to or lower than the average of many years, focusing heavily on the beginning and middle of the storm season.
According to the average data of many years, there are about 12 - 13 tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and 6 - 7 storms affecting Vietnam.
However, it is worth noting that the number of strong storms (from level 12 and above) is likely to be at or higher than the average of many years.
Sincerely thank you!
