According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, regarding the large-scale climate trend, at the end of August, ENSO is in a strong El Nino state. It is forecasted that in the period from now until the end of 2026, the El Nino state will continue to maintain strong to very strong intensity. The El Nino phenomenon will affect the diễn biến of natural disasters from now until the end of 2026.
It is forecast that storms/tropical depressions from now until the end of the year will be less than the multi-year average. There is a possibility of 4-6 storms/tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea, of which about 1-3 will make landfall in Vietnam.
Hot weather in September 2026 will also occur in the area from Thanh Hoa - Hue city and the South Central Coast, with the number of hot days likely to be higher than the multi-year average as well as the same period in 2025.
Regarding the rain trend, from now until October 2026, moderate to heavy rain is likely to appear in many places across the country. In November, rain tends to occur less than the multi-year average and mainly concentrated in the area from Ha Tinh to Hue city and the South Central Coast.
It is noteworthy that there is a high possibility that in the Central region there will be a shortage of rain in the main months of the rainy season (November-November), affecting the production of the Winter-Spring crop, Summer-Autumn crop, industrial crops, reservoirs and power generation.
In addition, in the Central and Southern Highlands regions, the rainy season is likely to end early, increasing the risk of early and more intense saltwater intrusion than the average of many years.
Cold air is likely to operate with weaker intensity than the multi-year average.
Severe cold and frost are likely to appear later and the number of days of severe cold and frost is lower than the average of many years in the same period. It is likely that this year there will be a warm winter.
