The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the next 6 months (from October 2024 to March 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
According to ENSO monitoring data from the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), atmospheric and oceanic conditions are trending toward La Nina status.
The synthesis of forecast results from Centers around the world at present shows that ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state in October - December with a probability of about 70 - 80%.
Regarding monsoon activity, the winter monsoon is likely to start at approximately to later than the long-term average. The northeast monsoon is likely to be at or below the long-term average in October - December 2024. From January - March 2025, the monsoon intensity is forecast to be approximately or above the long-term average. Beware of prolonged cold spells occurring during the main winter months.
Temperature trends across most of the country are approximately equal to or higher than the multi-year average for the same period from October to December 2024 and approximately equal to the multi-year average from January to March 2025.
Rainfall trend from October to December 2024, total rainfall is likely to be approximately the average of many years in the North, higher than the average of many years in the Central, Central Highlands, and South.
Beware of heavy rains causing serious flooding in the Central region.
The rainy season in the Central Highlands and the South is likely to end later than the average of many years.
From January to March 2025, total rainfall is likely to be approximately equal to the multi-year average in the North; approximately equal to or higher than the multi-year average in the Central Highlands, South, and Central regions.
The possibility of unseasonal rains will ease drought conditions in the Central Highlands and the South during the 2024-2025 dry season.
Regarding tropical cyclone activity, from now until the end of 2024, the number of storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years. According to the average data of many years from October to December, there are about 4-5 storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea; of which 2-3 affect Vietnam.
