According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 4:00 a.m. on October 21, the center of storm No. 12 was at about 18.3 degrees north latitude - 113, east longitude, about 200 km north-northeast of Hoang Sa Special Zone. The strongest wind near the storm center is level 9-10 (75-102 km/h), gusting to level 12. The storm is moving westward at a speed of about 20 km/h.
It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the storm will move west-southwest, at a speed of 10-15 km/h. At 4:00 a.m. on October 22, the center of the storm was at about 17.0 degrees north latitude - 110.7 degrees east longitude, in the northwest sea of Hoang Sa special zone. Strong winds of level 9-10, gusting to level 12.
The dangerous area in the East Sea is from 15.5-20 degrees north latitude - 109.0-115 degrees east longitude. The natural disaster risk level is level 3 for the western sea area of the northern East Sea (including the Hoang Sa special zone).
It is forecasted that in the next 48 hours, the storm will move southwest at a speed of about 10 km/h and is likely to gradually weaken into a tropical depression. At 4:00 a.m. on October 23, the center of the tropical depression was at about 15.9 degrees north latitude - 108.7 degrees east longitude, in the coastal waters of Hue City - Quang Ngai. Strong wind level 6, gust level 8.
The danger zone is from 14.5-19.0 degrees north latitude - 107.5-112.5 degrees east longitude. Level 3 natural disaster risk for the western sea area of the northern East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone), the sea area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Ly Son special zone).
It is forecasted that in the next 72 hours, the tropical depression will continue to move southwest at a speed of about 10 km/h, entering the southern Laos area and gradually weakening into a low pressure area. At 4:00 a.m. on October 24, the center of the low pressure area was at about 15.0 degrees north latitude - 106.8 degrees east longitude.
Regarding the impact of the storm at sea, the northern East Sea area (including Hoang Sa special zone) has strong winds of level 7-8, the area near the storm's eye has strong winds of level 9-10, gusting to level 12. Waves are 3-5 m high, near the center of the storm are 5-7 m high, the sea is very rough.
The sea area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Ly Son special area) will have strong winds of level 6, from the morning of October 22 it will increase to level 7, the area near the storm's eye will have strong winds of level 8, gusts of level 10, waves 3-5 m high, rough seas. All ships operating in the above dangerous areas are likely to be affected by thunderstorms, whirlwinds, strong winds and large waves.
On land, due to the influence of storm circulation combined with cold air, easterly wind disturbances and terrain effects, from the night of October 22 to October 26, the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai is highly likely to experience widespread heavy rain. The total rainfall from Ha Tinh to northern Quang Tri and Quang Ngai is about 200-400 mm, in some places over 500 mm; the area from southern Quang Tri to Da Nang City is generally 500-700 mm, in some places over 900 mm.
Heavy rain in the Central region is likely to last until the end of October 2025.
There is a high risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas, flooding in low-lying areas and urban areas. Localities need to pay attention to safe operation of hydroelectric reservoirs and irrigation before, during and after the storm; prepare response plans for flood scenarios on rivers from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai that may reach alert level 3 and exceed alert level 3. The forecast level of natural disaster risk due to floods and inundation is level 3.
