The latest storm and low pressure information on October 16 from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that the low pressure area near the Philippines 10e will enter the Philippine PAR forecast area on October 16 and is likely to strengthen into a storm within the next 24 to 36 hours.
According to the latest announcement from the Philippine National Weather Service, low pressure area 10e is 1,505km east of Eastern Visayas, Philippines and has not yet directly affected the country's weather.
We expect this low pressure to enter the Philippine forecast area today at low pressure intensity, PAGASA based onedin de la Cruz said in the bulletin.
However, based on our analysis, in the next 24 to 36 hours, this depression is likely to develop into a tropical storm, she added.
If low pressure area 10e becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will be locally named Ramil.
"Based on our forecast, this storm is moving mainly west-northwest, so there is a high chance of making landfall between Cagayan and Isabela," Ms. Loriedin de la Cruz noted.
PAGASA's weather forecaster added that the agency does not rule out the possibility that the path of low pressure area 10e will go further south and approach the Bicol region before making landfall in northern and central Luzon.
In the October 15 bulletin, PAGASA forecasts that on October 18, Typhoon Ramil may move closer to northern and central Luzon, causing widespread rain, including rain in Metro Manila.
If the system strengthens and moves inland, it could bring strong gusts and thunderstorms to parts of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Quezon and northern Bicol over the weekend.
The low pressure trough of the 10e along with the easterly winds are causing cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Calabarzon, Bicol and Eastern Visayas.
Ramil will be the 18th typhoon this year in the Philippines and the third tropical storm to form this month. According to many forecasts, Ramil is likely to enter the East Sea, becoming the 12th storm in the East Sea, affecting Vietnam and Hainan Island (China).
According to the latest storm and low pressure information from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the low pressure that the Philippines is monitoring is currently named 96W by the JTWC in the Philippine Sea.
The JTWC forecasts that 96W is unlikely to develop into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Currently, the low pressure has maximum sustained winds of about 35-45 km/h, with an estimated minimum sea level pressure of nearly 1009 hPa.
Analysis by JTWC forecasters shows that moderate to favorable conditions for this depression to strengthen, with low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 degrees Celsius).
Forecast models are quite consistent that 96W will develop steadily in the next 1 to 2 days and move northwest. All global models show the long-term development of this system. In the next few days, the system will move west-northwest and develop more slowly.
