The latest typhoon and low pressure news on the morning of July 22nd from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that low pressure 07d is gradually entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This low pressure, which is forecast to enter the East Sea and is likely to become a typhoon, is currently 1,235km southeast of Luzon, Philippines.
Philippine weather forecasters say that low pressure 07d may strengthen into a tropical depression or storm in the next 24 hours.
The Northern Luzon region needs to closely monitor updates on this low pressure area. After entering PAR and strengthening, this system will be named Kiyapo by PAGASA.
All global forecast models currently agree that the potential storm may pass through the Batanes - Cagayan area, Philippines by the end of July 24 or early July 25.
In terms of intensity, there are still differences between models. GFS and GDM models predict that this low pressure area near the Philippines will reach Category 1 hurricane intensity in the US scale, while other models show that this system will remain at tropical storm or strong tropical storm level. To date, this system is not predicted to reach super typhoon level.
Depression 07d currently has the potential to cause heavy rain in Northern Luzon while strengthening the southwest monsoon, which may affect most areas of the Philippines this week until early next week. The southwest monsoon is currently affecting Palau, western Micronesia, Mindanao and Palawan regions in the southern Philippines.
While PAGASA currently assesses that the low pressure near the Philippines is highly likely to strengthen in the next 24 hours, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US Navy assesses that the low pressure that this agency calls 92W is likely to moderately strengthen into a storm or tropical depression in the next 24 hours. 92W is operating in the Philippine Sea, with maximum surface sustained winds of about 35-45 km/h.
Analysis by JTWC storm forecasters shows that low pressure 92W is in a favorable environment for development, with low winds, good altitude divergence and warm sea surface temperatures. Forecast models generally agree that 92W will continue to move northwest in the process of strengthening.
